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11 Games, 11 Trends
There’s a lot to get to today:
11 games in the NBA, and we have one trend for each of them.
The daily NHL cheat sheet.
Before we get into it, another reminder that we have a new website! The tool has been upgraded to align with the app, and you can check it out here.
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Now, let’s get into it.
NBA Trends For March 10th
MEM @ PHI: GG Jackson II, 7.5 Reb + Ast
In the 25 games before January 28th, GG Jackson II went over this line just 3 times, averaging 3.6 rebounds and assists. In the 18 games since, he’s been over 12 times, averaging 8.5 rebounds and assists.
Jackson’s last 20 games
He’s facing the 76ers tonight, who rank 28th in rebounds and assists allowed to opposing power forwards. In the two games after January 28th against bottom 5 power forward defenses, he has 11 & 8 rebounds + assists, respectively.
Jackson against bottom 5 power forward defenses, with those two recent games on the right
DET @ BKN: Tobias Harris, 6.5 Rebounds + Assists
Harris is averaging 7.4 rebounds and assists per game this season, with a 62% hit rate against this line. Let’s go step by step, and highlight why this looks good:
Good news for Harris; the Brooklyn Nets rank 27th in rebounds and assists allowed to power forwards.
Harris is averaging 28.5 minutes per game this season.
In two matchups against this Nets squad, he has 10 rebounds and assists in one game, and 5 rebounds and assists in the other game. In the first game, he played 33.8 minutes. In the second game, he had 19.8 minutes.
Harris head-to-head data against Brooklyn
In all games this season, playing his season average or more (28+ minutes), he’s averaging 8.5 rebounds and assists with a 69% hit rate.
The minutes & the matchup are what we’re depending on for this trend.
DAL @ ATL: Cooper Flagg, 4.5 Assists
This one is straightforward: the Atlanta Hawks rank 29th in assists allowed to opposing point guards, and in his previous 7 games against teams ranked in the bottom 5 in that category, Flagg is averaging 5.9 assists with an 86% hit rate.
Flagg against the bottom 5 assists-to-point-guard teams
He’s also been better at moving the ball in the second half of the season:
From October 22nd to December 20th, he averaged 3.5 assists per game, exceeding this mark in 8 of 28 games (28% hit rate).
From December 20th onward, he’s averaged 5.0 assists per game, with a 66% hit rate (16/24).
WAS @ MIA: Tre Johnson, 2.5 Rebounds
In his L5 games, Johnson is averaging 2.8 rebounds per game, with an 80% hit rate. More importantly, the Heat rank 29th in rebounds allowed to shooting guards, with opposing shooting guards clearing their rebound line at a 64% clip against Miami in their last 10 games. And against the bottom 5 shooting guard rebounding defensive teams, Johnson’s record speaks for itself:
Tre Johnson against the bottom 5 shooting guard rebounding teams
Can he build on his L5 with a solid matchup tonight?
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Partner Plays: the next five trends are from our partners on X.
TOR @ HOU: Jabari Smith, 13.5 Points
PHX @ MIL: Collin Gillespie, 4.5 Assists
BOS @ SA: De’Aaron Fox, 16.5 Points
CHI @ GS: Draymond Green, 5.5 Assists
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CHA @ POR: Jerami Grant, 22.5 PRA
IND @ SAC: Russell Westbrook, 5.5 Rebounds
Which version of Westbrook are we getting tonight? That’s the key question. From the start of the season to January 14th, he averaged 6.5 rebounds in 41 games. Since then, he has averaged 3.2 rebounds in 19 games, and when we eliminate his only double-digit rebound game from that span, he’s averaged 2.7 rebounds in 18 games. It’s worth noting that the double-digit rebound game was his most recent, on March 8th, where he racked up 11 boards.
Let’s hope we get that first Westbrook, or the one from March 8th, because he gets a great matchup tonight. The Pacers rank 29th in rebounds allowed to opposing point guards, and when Westbrook plays against the bottom 5 point guard rebounding teams, he’s averaging 6.4 boards with an 82% hit rate.
Westbrook against the bottom-5 PG rebounding teams
Coming off a triple-double on the 8th, do you believe?
MIN @ LAL: Jaden McDaniels, 13.5 Points
What happened the last time McDaniels faced the Lakers? The same Lakers that rank dead last in points allowed to small forwards? The young man from Federal Way, Washington, dropped a 30-piece on the team that drafted him. And it’s no surprise he was able to take advantage of such a good matchup, considering what he’s done to other bottom 5 ranked small forward defenses:
McDaniels against bottom 5 ranked small forward defenses
The Timberwolves are healthy, minus Kyle Anderson, so it’s worth noting that in the games against bottom 5 small forward defenses, with Edwards, DiVincezno, Gobert, Randle, and Reid all healthy, he’s still averaging 16.0 points per game with a 70% hit rate across 10 games.