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There are six games on the NBA slate tonight, and we’re zeroing in on three-point makes data from three of those matchups. We’ve identified three players with a strong 3PTM EDGE on the Props.Cash app and will break down each one below.
Trey Murphy — New Orleans Pelicans
Anthony Black — Orlando Magic
Donte DiVincenzo — Minnesota Timberwolves
In addition to the NBA breakdowns, we’re closing out the newsletter with an NHL shots on goal cheat sheet from WallaBets.
Now, let’s get into it.
NBA
Trey Murphy, 2.5 3PTM, EDGE: 3.4
Let’s start by looking at Murphy’s core data, with our key piece of data in bold.
Murphy is averaging 2.8 threes per game, with a 47% hit rate
Murphy is averaging 2.8 three on the road, with a 52% hit rate at home
He’s over in 4 of his L10, averaging 3.1 makes
He’s over in 4 of his L5, averaging 4.4 makes
He has 3+ made threes in 4 straight, averaging 9.6 attempts. This season, he’s averaging 7.4 3PTAs. Let’s investigate the uptick in attempts.
Part of it is that Saddiq Bey is out, and another part is that Herbert Jones is out. Without Jones in the lineup, he averages 8.3 attempts. Without Bey, he’s averaging 10 attempts. And in the two games without either of them, Murphy fired off 15 attempts from three.
Assuming Murphy keeps up this volume, and hoping he keeps up his volume, check out his data with 8 or more attempts this season:
Murphy with 8 or more 3-point attempts this season
He’s facing the Lakers, who rank 18th in 3-point defense against opposing shooting guards and 16th in 3-point attempts allowed to opposing shooting guards. It’s also worth noting that they rank 16th in Spot Up shooting defense, where Murphy scores a whopping 24.7% of his points.
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Anthony Black, 1.5 3PTM, EDGE: 2.2
Let’s start by looking at Black’s core data, with our key piece of data in bold.
Black is averaging 1.5 threes per game, with a 39% hit rate
Black is averaging 1.7 three per game, with a 50% hit rate on the road
He’s over in 8 in his L10, averaging 2.7 threes
He’s over in 4 of his L5, averaging 2.8 threes
As you can see, he’s been on fire in his L10. And a huge part of that is also an uptick in volume. He’s averaging 4.4 attempts this season and 6.3 attempts over his L10. Why the uptick? Let’s investigate.
He’s seen an increase of 3 minutes per game, opening more opportunities to shoot, because of the absence of Jalen Suggs. In his last 6 games without Suggs, he’s gone over every time, and in 8 of his L10 without Suggs.
Black without Suggs this season
And without Suggs, he sees a corresponding increase in shooting volume as well. In those 10 games, he’s averaging 6.4 attempts. This season, when he attempts 6 or more threes, he’s averaging 3.6 makes with a 100% hit rate.
Black with 6 or more 3-point attempts this season
Black faces Washington, who rank 22nd in 3-point defense against opposing shooting guards. And the play type data is even stronger:
Black’s top play types for points scores are some of Washington’s weakest defensively
Can Black hit 2 threes?
Donte DiVincenzo, 2.5 3PTM, EDGE: 2.6
Let’s start by looking at DiVincenzo’s core data, with our key piece of data in bold.
DiVincenzo is averaging 2.9 threes per game, with a 64% hit rate
DiVincenzo is averaging 2.9 threes per game, with a 78% hit rate at home
He’s over in 6 in his L10, averaging 2.6 threes
He’s over in 2 of his L5, averaging 2.2 threes
He’s struggled in his last 3, going under in each game with 2/1/1 made threes. The volume has been there, with 6/8/9 attempts per game. One of those games was against tonight’s opponent, Miami, in which he had 8 attempts. Historically, this season with that volume, DiVincenzo has outstanding data against this line.
This season, he’s averaging 8 attempts per game. When he has an average or above average attempts game, he averages 3.7 made threes per game, with an 84% hit rate. And at home with 8 or more attempts, he’s averaging 3.8 made threes with an incredible 100% hit rate.
DiVincenzo with 8 or more 3-point attempts this season at home
If he can replicate his volume from earlier this week when he played Miami, Donte is in a good spot here. This is a Miami team that ranks 25th in 3-point defense against opposing point guards, with 61% of opposing point guards clearing their lines against Miami over their last 10 games.
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NHL Cheat Sheets
Check out some of @WallaBets data below, courtesy of his daily NHL cheat sheets and the Props.Cash app.
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See you Thursday!