
NBA, From 3!
In Tuesday’s newsletter, we gave out 5 trends based on Edge, and went 3-2. Since then, Edge has been given a new model. The new model is superior in every way, and today we’re going to put it to the test. We’re going to do the top three 3PTM edge picks from the Props.Cash app.
On top of that, check out our usual NHL cheat sheets from @WallaBets at the bottom of the newsletter.
Now, let’s get into it.
Three NBA 3-Point Trends
Donte DiVincenzo, 2.5 3PTM
Edge: 3.0
DiVincenzo is averaging 3.1 makes per game this season, with a 69% hit rate, and more recently, he’s absolutely lacing it from three. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 3.5 makes with an 80% hit rate. Over his last 20, he’s averaging 3.2 makes with a 70% hit rate.

DiVincenzo’s last 10 games
He’s also playing OKC, who rank 21st in 3-point defense against opposing point guards, with 53% of opposing PGs clearing their line against OKC in their last 10 games. OKC also ranks bottom 5 in spot-up defense, where Donte scores 37.2% of his points. When DiVincenzo plays bottom 5 spot-up defensive teams, he averages 3.0 makes with a 67% hit rate.

DiVincenzo’s numbers against the bottom 5 Spot-U defensive teams
DiVincenzo also averages 2.9 makes in back-to-backs, with 3 or more makes in three straight back-to-backs. Can he hit three or more tonight?
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LaMelo Ball, 2.5 3PTM
Edge: 3.0
Ball faces the toughest 3-point defense in the NFL, Dallas. They rank #1 against opposing point guards. Good thing for LaMelo bettors is that he doesn’t seem to care. Earlier this season against the Mavs, Ball flung up 10 3-point attempts and sank 5, cruising over his line.

Ball’s H2H data against Dallas, with the most recent game on the right
Just like DiVincenzo, Ball has been lacing it lately. Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging 3.25 makes per game with a 75% hit rate. On the road, he’s been particularly hot, averaging 3.7 makes with a 70% hit rate over his L10 on the road. And also like Donte, he has outstanding data in back-to-backs.

LaMelo has back-to-back games this season
Can he build on it tonight?
Tim Hardaway Jr. 2.5 3PTM
Edge: 2.9
This one was not at the top of the list, but the matchup and head-to-head data are too good to ignore. Over his last 6 games against Brooklyn, he’s averaging 3.2 makes with an 83% hit rate. Only one of those games is this year, where he fired off four threes.

Hardway threes data this season
More importantly is his data against teams that don’t defend spot-up play types well. Hardway scores a whopping 28.7% of his points from that play type, and against those bottom 5-defensive teams, he eats.

Hardway versus the bottom 5 defensive teams against Spot-Up play types
100% hit rate, averaging 4.4 made threes. Build on that tonight, Tim.
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