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3-Point Data in the NBA
There are 8 NBA games tonight in North America, with a game between Orlando and Memphis already underway in Germany, and we’re here to highlight some high-level 2-point data we found across those 8 games.
Before we get into it, there are three things to note for today’s newsletter:
At the bottom of the newsletter, you’ll find our regular NHL cheat sheets from @WallaBets.
This weekend’s NFL newsletter will come to you on Saturday morning, to ensure we can include the Saturday NFL games.
And we have a new tutorial! You may have noticed some new filters on the app. Well, we have a video linked below that breaks those down.
Now, let’s get into it.
NBA 3-Point Data
Our process for finding these trends was simple:
Identify the worst teams in the NBA at defending the 3 that are on tonight’s schedule.
Identify the best shooter on the opposing team. It may not be the best shooter overall, but the shooter who can expose the matchup.
Tell you about it!
And that’s it. Without further ado, take it away, Miles Bridges.
Charlotte at the LA Lakers: Miles Bridges, 1.5 3PTM
Edge: 1.9 3PTM
We’re off to a good start here: Edge likes bridges for 1.9 threes, and we tend to like what Edge likes. And then there’s the matchup.
Lakers defense against opposing power forwards
The Lakers allow the most 3’s in the NBA to opposing power forwards. Although they’ve been better lately, with just 33% of opposing power forwards clearing their line against LA, it’s still statistically the best matchup in the NBA. And a matchup he has dominated in the past.
Mridges vs the Lakers, with this season on the right
He racked up 7 (!!!!) threes the last time he played the Lakers, attempting 12 in the process. Now, he’s only averaging 6.9 attempts this season, so we can’t expect another 7-spot from him, but the head-to-head data is encouraging nonetheless.
Lastly, using those new shiny filters, let’s see how Bridges does against other bottom 5 three’s defenses against power forwards.
Bridges versus the bottom 5 defenses
To make the best decision, his recent play needs to be noted here:
In his L10, he’s averaging 2.1 makes with a 60% hit rate.
In his L5, he’s averaging 1.8 makes, with a 60% hit rate.
And now we ask you…
Utah at Dallas: Max Christie, 2.5 3PTM
Edge: 1.8
We’re going against Edge - yes. But there’s a good reason: Christie gets the Jazz, who rank 29th in 3-point defense against opposing shooting guards, with 58% of opposing SGs clearing their line against Utah in their last 10 games.
Utah’s defense against opposing shooting guards
Christie is only clearing this line in 50% of his games, despite being in the top ten in 3-point percentage in the NBA this season. That’s because it’s all about volume for Christie. He’s played 38 games this season, averaging 5.4 attempts from three. I
In 25 of those games, he’s attempted 5 or more 3’s, and in those 25 games, he averages 2.9 makes with a 68% hit rate against this line.
Christie’s 3PTM data when he attempts 6 or more.
And when he has an above-average attempts game, with 6 or more attempts (which he’s done in 20 games), he averages 3.1 makes with a 75% hit rate. Volume is the key, and in a matchup that allowed him to pull up 6 times on January 8th, we’re banking on good volume again.
It’s also worth noting that when Christie plays bottom 5 defenses at home, and bottom 5 defenses against Spot-Up play types (Christie’s top scoring play type), he cooks.
Christie vs bottom 5 shooting guard 3’s D
Christie vs poor spot-up defense
To make the best decision, his recent play needs to be noted here:
In his L10, he’s averaging 2.2 makes with a 30% hit rate.
In his L5, he’s averaging 2.4 makes, with a 30% hit rate.
And now we ask you…
Knicks at Warriors: Steph Curry, 4.5 3PTM
The 3-point king gets a matchup to behold. Over the last 2 seasons, in four games against the Knicks, Curry racked up 21 threes, averaging 5.3. Yes, he only hit this line in 2 of 4 games, but in the other two, he finished with 4 makes.
Steph H2H
And since then, they’ve only gotten worse at defending the three. This year, against opposing point guards, the Knicks rank 26th in three-point defense, and againstthe bottom 5 defending teams, Steph absolutely cooks.
Steph against the bottom 5 defending 3PTM teams
To make the best decision, his recent play needs to be noted here:
In his L10, he’s averaging 4.0 makes with a 40% hit rate.
In his L5, he’s averaging 3.6 makes, with a 20% hit rate.
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