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The Brewers, Dominic Smith, and Justin Herbert

It’s the dog days of August, but the Milwaukee Brewers do not care. They’ve fired off 10 wins in a row, and they’ve outscored opponents 77-34. As a team, they’re hitting .318, and their pitchers have pitched to a team 3.40 ERA. An analysis of their quest for 11 wins in a row is where we’ll start this week’s newsletter!

In Los Angeles, the tires are spinning. Protecting Justin Herbert is priority number one, and it looked like the Chargers were about to roll out a top ten o-line, until Rashawn Slater went down with a season (and potentially career-threatening) injury. They’ve added a depth piece since, but can Joe Alt moving to left tackle and the rest of the o-line holding up be enough for Herbert? We’ll look at this passing yards future.

And lastly, Dominic Smith. What we’re seeing is so much fun - he has a hit in 14 straight games, his average has taken off, and we’re going to dive into his matchup tonight to see if the data likes him to make it 15.

The Brewers: 11 In A Row?

The Brewers are the talk of baseball - they started their 10-game winning streak with a 16-9 bludgeoning of the Washington Nationals, they’ve scored 7 or more runs in 7 of the 10 wins, and as a team they’re hitting .318. Pitching has been solid, too: 3.40 ERA, opposing hitters are hitting .238, and in the last 7 days, that’s even better at .213.

Tonight will be a challenge, though. Pirates star and the best young pitcher in baseball, Paul Skenes, gets the ball to try and stop the streak. These are his real stats, and they’re almost hard to believe:

• Holding opposing batters to a .192 average

• Has a 1.94 ERA

• Skenes K per 9 is an incredible 10.9, 12th highest in the majors

But there is optimism for the Brewers. Skenes has given up 12 hits in his last 2 starts, the most in a 2-start span this season.

The troublesome thing for the Brewers is their history versus Skenes. Of the 9 projected hitters slated to start this game, only two of them have managed a hit, and as a team they’re 4/37 (plate appearances).

The one Brewer with good numbers vs Skenes is Christian Yelich, who has 3 hits in 8 plate appearances versus Skenes. You can read more about their history in the better vs pitcher matchup page, down below.

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Justin Herbert: 3675 Passing Yards

Let’s be clear: Rashawn Slater cannot be replaced. He only missed one game last year that Herbert played in, and it was week 4 versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Herbert saw the pressure, went 16 for 27, didn’t even hit the 180-yard mark, threw a TD, was sacked twice, and was pressured a whopping 37% of the time by KC.

His passing yards line is 3675.5 passing yards for this upcoming season, and even with a healthy Rashawn Slater, he only eclipsed this line by 195 yards last season.

Even though they’re exploring the trade market for any help, Herbert may not have the same time to find his big weapons downfield this season.

Dominic Smith: 15 In A Row?

Dominic Smith has been so much fun to watch. He has a hit in 14 straight games, which is every game since the All-Star break. Before the break, he was hitting .235, and he enters tonight’s game as a .279 hitter. Incredible.

From a betting perspective, there’s zero value on the hit prop (-250), but there is still value on Smith for a single if you think the streak is going to stay alive. He has a single in 11 of 14 games, with two multi-single games mixed in.

Smith faces off against Padres starter Nestor Cortes, and they’ve battled twice before (Smith has a single in 2 PA’s), but that was in 2021. The silver lining for this matchup: lefties own Cortes this season, to the tune of a .364 average.

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Batter Versus Pitcher Matchups, August 12th

⚾ Gunnar Henderson: .462 AVG in 13 PA vs Kirby🔥
⚾ Josh Naylor: .600 AVG in 11 PA vs Kremer 💪 
⚾ Bryson Stott: Perfect vs Singer & .538 AVG L4 💥
⚾ Christian Yelich: .375 AVG in 8 PA vs Skenes 🚀

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See you Thursday!