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MVP, Klay Thompson, and Jonathan Kuminga

We have some betting trends at the bottom of the newsletter, but below are three takeaways from the NBA season so far:

1. Luka Doncic, SGA, and Nikola Jokic are leading the MVP charge. But amongst the 5 players who had the shortest odds to win MVP since June, there’s one player whose odds have moved the most since the season started.

2. Klay Thomas didn’t have a good preseason, and the trolls circled, calling his signing a total bust. But in his three regular-season games as a Mav, it’s working. Let’s dive into why.

3. And Steph Curry is hurt. His ankle sprain looked bad when it first happened, but he’s being reevaluated Friday and how long he’ll be out still needs to be figured out. But in his absence, can we take anything away from how Jonathan Kuminga played last year without Steph and apply it to betting this year? We’ll see.

Here we go!

2025 MVP Odds Are Moving

Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Anthony Edwards: those were the five players with the shortest odds for MVP before the season began, and one of those players has moved up more than the others.

From +1250 to +1050

This mysterious player of that group of 5? Anthony Edwards. According to sportsbettingdime.com, Edwards has seen his MVP odds move the most since the start of the season amongst the favorites.

But why? Edwards has seen marginal improvements to some of his stats in the first week of the season.

He’s scoring more points, grabbing more boards, and shooting the three better, but his field goal and free throw percentage have taken pretty steep declines. His assists have gone down by almost 1 and a half per game, but the potential assists are still there.

Last year, Edwards finished the season 7th in MVP voting with zero first-place votes, but could this be the year he wins it? We’re not saying he will, we just wanted to highlight his moving odds one week into the season.

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A Change of Scenery for Klay

Klay Thompson signed with the Dallas Mavericks this offseason, ending the splash bro era in Golden State. His preseason was rough, and the trolls circled, labeling his signing as a mistake after just one game.

But the preseason is the preseason, and Klay has found his stride as a member of the Mavs in the first three games of the regular season.

Klay’s First Week

Klay is averaging 19.7 points on 47.7 shooting and 45.5 3-point shooting, and in betting terms, he’s gone over his points line (15.5) in all three games this season. He also hasn’t missed a free throw this season.

It’s only three games, but so far, Klay is a perfect fit beside Luka and Kyrie.

Steph Out, Kuminga In?

Steph’s injury didn’t look good, but there’s some optimism that he may have avoided a long-term injury. He’ll be out for the next two games for sure, which includes the Warriors matchup with the Pelicans tonight. And in his absence last year, Jonathan Kuminga stepped up.

Kuminga Took a Step

With Steph in the lineup last year, Kuminga averaged 16.1 points per game. Steph got hurt, and Kuminga played 8 games without Steph, and his average jumped to 18.8. In two of those games, Kuminga attempted just 3 and 4 shots. If we eliminate those two games and look at games where Kuminga attempted 11 or more shots, his average skyrockets to 24.2.

Without Curry in the next two games, could Kuminga take on a bigger role? The only roadblock we see is that Kuminga is off to a slow start, which could lead to Steven Kerr not trusting him as much as he did last year. In the first three games of the season, Kuminga has averaged 8 points on 33.3% shooting.

NBA Trend of the Night

Using the DvP filter (defense vs player position) we found our NBA Trend of the Night.

Malik Monk Over 1.3 3PTM

The Utah Jazz have been brutal at defending the three this season, especially to shooting guards. Three of four shooting guards to face the Jazz this season have gone over this line by an average of 1.5 threes.

Monk has also been letting them go from three, firing off 12 threes in his first three games with a 50% three-point percentage, going over this line in 2 of his 3 games.

NHL Trend of the Night

Today’s NHL Trend of the Night is based on a feel-good story and our data.

Marc-Andre Fleury Over 27.5 Saves

Fleury is planning on retiring after the season, so tonight is his final game in Pittsburgh. What a wild sentence to type out.

Fleury has been over this line in 1 of 2 games this season, and the 50% hit rate is consistent for this play across the board.

• 50% of goalies to face Pittsburgh this season have hit this mark.

• Fleury has hit this in 2 of his last 4 starts against the Penguins, including a 34-save performance last season.

Our projection model likes Fleury tonight, too. It has him projected for 34 saves.

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