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4 Games, 4 Trends
There are four games in the NBA tonight, and we’ve got a trend below for each game. Plus, at the bottom of the newsletter, we have NHL prop gems from Walla Bets.
Before we dive in, we just released a new tutorial ahead of the holidays, which we’ve linked in the first break below. It’s a quick how-to guide for new users and a great starting point if you’re considering the app. If you do want to try it out, we’ve also created an exclusive 50% off first-month discount for newsletter readers through the end of the year. Head to the website to sign up by clicking this link and enter NEW50 at checkout.
The trend we’ve chosen for each NBA game is the top EDGE trend from the Props.Cash app. Now, let’s get into it.
PHI @ MEM: Cam Spencer, 20.5 PRA
EDGE: 26.3 PRA
Edge has Spencer to top his PRA line by nearly 6 PRA.
Here are a few facts about Spencer’s PRA line that EDGE took into consideration:
Averaging 19.6 PRA this season, only clearing this line in 39% of his games BUT…
He’s averaged 23.3 minutes per game this season, and 29.4 over this last 10
With the minutes boost, he’s seen a PRA boost. In his last 10, he’s averaging 27.5 PRA with a 90% hit rate.
Over his last 5, he has an 80% hit rate, averaging 27.0 PRA
He’s played 25+ in 9 straight - when he plays 25 or more minutes, he averages 24.4 PRA, with a 75% hit rate this season
The 76ers rank 14th in PRA defense against opposing point guards, with 50% of opposing PGs clearing their line against the 76ers in their last 10 games.
Spencer’s points scored by play type work well in this matchup:
Spencer’s top 4 play types
BOS @ UTA: Hugo Gonzalez, 10.5 Points + Rebounds
EDGE: 12.3 Points + Rebounds
Edge has Spencer to top his PRA line by nearly 2.3 points & rebounds.
Here are a few facts about Gonzalez’s points & rebounds line that EDGE took into consideration:
Only over this line in 19% of his games, but just like Spencer, his recent data is what we really need to look at
He’s only averaged 14.8 minutes per game this season, but over his L5, he’s played 30 or more 4 times.
In those 4 games, he has 17 points or rebounds in each game.
He gets the best matchup in the NBA: the Jazz rank dead last in combined points and rebounds defense against opposing shooting guards, with 58% of opposing shooting guards clearing their line against Utah in their last 10 games.
Utah’s defensive data against opposing shooting guards
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DET @ LAL: LeBron James, 1.5 3PTM
EDGE: 1.7 3PTM
Disclaimer: This was not the top EDGE trend for this game on the app, but we like the story the data tells, and wanted to highlight LeBron’s 3PTM line.
LeBron is only averaging 1.4 makes per game this season with a 43% hit rate, and 1.3 makes at home, also with a 43% hit rate. He’s gone under in back-to-back games, but he’s only attempted 3 & 2 threes in those two games, and the matchup tonight is what we’re looking at.
The Pistons rank 28th in 3-point defense against opposing power forwards, with a whopping 64% of opposing power forwards clearing their line against the Pistons in their last 10 games. They also rank 14th in 3PTA allowed to opposing power forwards, so the opportunities should be there for LeBron in terms of attempts. When the attempts tick up, so do the makes.
LeBron averages 4.5 3-point attempts per game this season.
When LeBron attempts 4 or more, he averages 1.6 makes, with a 50% hit rate. At home, he averages 1.7 makes, with a 67% hit rate.
When LeBron attempts 5 or more, he averages 1.9 makes, with a 63% hit rate. At home, he averages 2.0 makes, with a 100% hit rate.
He’s also 2/2 in games without Rui Hachimura, with 3 makes in both.
SAC @ LAC: Kawhi Leonard, 37.5 Points + Rebounds
EDGE: 39.9 Points + Rebounds
Disclaimer: This was not the top EDGE trend for this game on the app, but we like the story the data tells, and wanted to highlight Kawhi’s P&R line.
Kawhi’s season hit rate, 38%, is not good.
Kawhi’s season average, 34.0, is not good.
But when he gets hot, he’s one of those players who can make a difference and change our view of his props quickly. And over his last 4 games, he’s red hot.
He’s averaging 35.6 points and 9.4 rebounds over his last 5, or 45.0 combined points + rebounds. Combine that recent play with his matchup against the Kings, who rank 13th in points + rebounds defense against opposing small forwards, and you have to feel decent about the prop. 65% of opposing small forwards have cleared their points & rebound prop against Sacramento in their last 10 games.
It’s also worth noting that Ivica Zubac remains out tonight for the Clippers, and three of those games have been without Zubac. In those three, he’s averaged 50.3 points & rebounds. Combine this season and last, Kawhi has averaged 40.6 points + rebounds in his L10 with Zubac.
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