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Building on Tuesday’s Newsletter

On Tuesday, we went 10-4! Let’s build on that today. You’ll find five MLB trends below and two trends for Men’s Olympic Basketball on Friday. But first…

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MLB Betting Trends

It’s a small slate, just five games on the docket. One trend for each game; coming up.

Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 Home Runs

Starting with a home run pick, which is risky, but Gunnar has to get another one soon, right? Of the seven starting pitchers in today’s slate who have pitched 99 or more innings, Cleveland Guardians starter Ben Lively has given up the most home runs per 9 innings, and Gunnar Henderson is looking for his spot.

Henderson, who was smashing home runs at will before the all-star break, hasn’t hit a dinger since July 14th. 22 of his 28 home runs have come off of righties, and Lively has allowed 7 home runs to lefties this season. Gunnar is still making contact and getting the ball in play, with hits in 7 straight, but he only has two games with extra-base hits. The contact is there, will the power return?

Bobby Witt Jr Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr is coming off a ridiculous July. Like, I mean an otherworldly July.

And he starts August with a matchup that jumps off the page.

Righties are destroying Montero to the tune of a .308 average, and Montero has given up 23 hits and 15 earned runs over his last 3 starts. Match made in heaven? We hope so.

Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Singles

We’re going back to the singles king, Xavier Edwards.

Edwards has a single in 20 of his 27 games this season, and although Atlanta Braves starter Charlie Morton is having a renaissance season, Edwards is hitting .377 as a right-handed batter against right-handed pitcher (Edwards is a switch hitter).

Ian Happ Over 0.5 Hits

Straight matchup play, here.

Happ has a .428 average and a .812 slugging percentage in 17 plate appearances versus Gray, and he’s been playing some pretty good ball. Happ has hits in 6 of his last 10 games with 8 hits over that span.

Ezequiel Tovar Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Ezequiel Tovar has been on fire since the all-star break. He’s been over this line in 8 of his 11 games since the break, hitting .417 with 7 extra-base hits, 20 hits, 12 runs, and 10 RBIs.

And who doesn’t love a trend with good data and a good narrative?

Men’s Olympic Basketball

The Men’s Olympic Basketball tournament has been live on the app since the start of the games, so we thought we’d utilize it for the newsletter here.

Sergio Llull Over 2.5 3PTM

Steph Curry doesn’t even attempt as many threes as Sergio Llull.

Llull has 21 (!!!!!) three-point attempts through the first two games of the Olympics, so this is almost purely a volume play. He’s been over this line in both games, and this is a massive game for Spain. Canada is into the quarter-final, and although Spain very likely is, they could still go home.

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Tuesday Recap

Big newsletter on Tuesday with 14 trends, and we went 10-4 this week, monster week! 129/245 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 53% hit rate.

MLB Recap

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Two runs, one hit. Easy cash.

J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 Singles ✅ Realmuto singled in the bottom of the second, easy cash.

Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Singles ✅ Edwards singled on the second pitch of the game.

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts ✅ Steele had 7 K’s.

Jarren Duran Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Duran had a single, that’s all. Tough.

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Alonso went 0/3 with 3 K’s.

Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Semien went 0/4. Swing and a miss, literally.

Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Singles ✅ A bottom-of-the-third-inning single turned this one green.

Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Witt. Jr had one of each, easy over.

Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 Hits ✅ Mitchell came through.

Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Hits Allowed ✅ Canning gave up 6 hits.

Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ Marte had 2 singles by the 3rd inning.

Matt Waldron Over 4.5 Strikeouts ✅ Waldron had 6 K’s.

J.P Sears Over 5.5 Hits Allowed ❌ Sears pitched a gem, 3 hits over just 7 innings.