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NBA Returns In Full Force, Four Nations Finishes

The NBA returned last night with one game between the Lakers and Hornets, but tonight the league returns in full force with a 9-game slate.

With the NBA back in full swing, TD Garden in Boston will be the focus of hockey fans across the US and Canada. The two nations are playing in the Four Nations tournament championship game.

Let’s jump into it, with one thought for each NBA game and a few thoughts for the Four Nations Championship.

NBA

The 9-game slate is as follows:

• Memphis at Indiana

• Boston at Philadelphia

• Orlando at Atlanta

• Cleveland at Brooklyn

• Chicago at New York

• LA Clipper at Milwaukee

• Charlotte at Denver

• Phoenix at San Antonio

• LA Lakers at Portland

MEM at IND: Jaren Jackson Jr, 22.5 Points

Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over this line in 52% of his road games (averaging 23.6 points), compared to just 41% of his home games (averaging 22.4 points), and Jackson has gone over this in 3 of his last 4 against Indiana.

The Pacers allow 22 points per game to centers, and 24.3 points to power forwards.

BOS at PHI: Can Tyrese Stay Hot Against Boston?

Tyrese Maxey has 32 or more points in three straight games against the Celtics, can he make it four in a row tonight? His points line is 25.5 tonight, so a 30-piece would be 4 more points than he needs to hit the over. He’s averaging 27.9 points per game at home and has gone over this line in 65% of his home games this season.

The Celtics are allowing 23.99 points per game this season, 15th in the NBA.

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ORL at ATL: Trae Young H2H Assists

When the Orlando Magic come to Atlanta, Trae Young loves to move the rock. In three straight games against the Magic in Atlanta, Young has 12 or more assists.

His assist tonight is 9.5, a line he’s gone over in 65% of his home games, averaging 11 assists per game.

CLE at BKN: 3 in a Row for Mobley?

Evan Mobley has back-to-back games of 20 or more points against Brooklyn, who are 21st in restricted zone defense, where Mobley scores 61% of his points.

Mobley is averaging 19.5 points per game this season on the road, almost 2 points more per game than he is at home (17.7). His points line tonight is 17.5, a line he’s gone over in 55% of his road games, compared to just 50% of his home games.

CHI at NYK: Karl-Anthony Towns from 3!

KAT gets the best matchup in the league from three for centers, with the Bulls allowing 1.7 threes per game to the 5, the most in the NBA.

KAT’s three line is 1.5 tonight, a line he’s gone over in 63% of his games this season, averaging 2.1 threes per game. At home, his hit rate drops to 56%, but his average holds at 2.1 threes per game.

LAC at MIL: Giannis without Portis

Bobby Portis was suspended 25 games Thursday morning by the NBA for violating the NBA’s drug policy, and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s numbers without Bobby Portis are pretty incredible against his 42.5 points and rebounds line tonight:

Although he gets the toughest matchup in the league against the Clippers (they allow 28.64 points and rebounds to power forwards), he’s still gone over this number in 3 of his last 5 games against LA, averaging 48.8 points and rebounds.

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CHA at DEN: Power Forwards from Three vs Charlotte

The Charlotte Hornets allow 2.64 threes per game to power forwards, third most in the NBA, and 3.25 threes per game to power forwards over their last five.

The Nuggets starting power forward, Aaron Gordon, has a 3PTM line of 0.5 tonight, a line he’s gone over in 72% of his games and 92% of his home games. In those home games, he’s only averaging 1.4, but a 92% hit rate in a matchup like this is noteworthy.

PHX at SAS: Wemby, Points + Rebounds

Victor Wembanyama’s points and rebounds line tonight is 34.5, and he gets the fourth-best matchup in the NBA, with the Phoenix Suns allowing 40.43 points and rebounds to centers this season. Wemby, against this P&R line, has gone over in 57% of his home games, averaging 36.1 points and rebounds.

Although he was held to 25 points and rebounds earlier this season versus Phoenix, he racked up 10 boards in that game and only managed 15 points. In that game, he shot 1 for 9 from three and attempted just 2 free throws.

LAK at POR: Jerami Grant vs the Lakers

Here’s a chart of Grant's betting lines tonight, and his hit rates versus the Lakers:

Even with those insane positive hit rates, there are a few other things to consider:

• In his game against LA earlier this season, he went under his points, assists, 3PTM, PRA, P&A, P&R, and R&A line. The only line he went over back in December was his rebound line.

• He’s lost some playing time to Deni Avdija.

• Grant is questionable tonight with Left Knee Soreness.

And before the all-star break, Grant went over his points line in 6 of 10 games, averaging 14.2 points.

Is his history versus LA a marker of what we can expect tonight? We hope so!

Four Nation: Canada vs USA

The US got the better of Canada in the round-robin, winning 3-1 with an empty net goal to close the deal. Here are two betting thoughts for each team, ahead of the most anticipated game since, arguably, the semi-final between the two nations at the Sochi Olympics in 2014.

Canada

If Canada is to win this game, their best player, and Captain Canada, needs to show up.

Sid the Kid

Through three games, he has 5 points but was held off the scoresheet against the US.

Crosby has four assists and gets another game with his province mate (and best friend) Nathan MacKinnon. If Canada wins, they need their two Nova Scotians to come through. Canada also needs more from his Colorado teammate Cale Makar.

Cale Makar

Makar was seen as Canada’s 3rd or 4th best player in the tournament when it began, but he has zero points in two games (he missed one with illness). He has 6 shots on goal in 2 games, and plays on the first powerplay, so a breakthrough in the final for a player of his calibre, is possible. Makar has a point in 60% of his games this season and has 22 goals from the blue line.

USA

The US is beatable, apparently! They lost their final (and meaningless) game of the round to Sweden, albeit with some key absences:

• Their captain, Auston Matthews, did not play.

• Jake Oettinger started over Connor Hellebuyck.

• Matthew Tkachuk didn’t play and is expected to return tonight.

• Brady Tkachuk was hurt less than 5 minutes in and played just 2 minutes.

The States won the first matchup with stout defensive play, and there are two keys to winning tonight: goalie Connor Hellebuyck and the Tkachuk brothers.

Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck has only allowed 2 goals in 2 games on 47 shots. If he can continue his play, the US is going to be in pretty good shape for a four nations Championship.

Brady, Matthew Tkachuk

Brady and Matthew Tkachuk have been hit by the injury bug, but they play such a key role for the US and they’re such big game players, that their influence is bound to be felt tonight. Matthew had 3 points in the tournament opener, before being held off the scoresheet versus Canada and suffering an injury late in the game.

Brady had two goals in the opening game and has 3+ shots on goal in all three games even though he only had 2 minutes of ice time versus Sweden.

The countdown to puck drop is on.

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See you Tuesday!