Eighteen NBA teams are in action, we have 14 games in the NHL & tons of data to sort through. Near the bottom of the newsletter, you’ll find our usual NHL cheat sheet, but the core of today’s newsletter will focus on those 9 NBA games, with a heightened focus on 3PTM markets.

We’ll kick things off with Philadelphia versus Detroit.

Across two games against the 76ers this season, Robinson has 7 made threes on 17 attempts, with at least 6 attempts in both games. This season, with 6 or more attempts from three across all games, Robinson is averaging 3.3 made threes with a 77% hit rate. At home, regardless of attempts, he’s been much better than on the road:

Now, let’s combine those two metrics: at home, with at least 6 attempts from three, he’s averaging 3.6 made threes with an 81% hit rate.

Robinson, having that volume against Philly, is within reach - he averages 7.2 attempts from three in all situations this season.

We’re tapping back into road & home splits for da Silva, but we’re also adding in his matchup. First off, da Silva and the Magic play host to Washington, who rank 29th in 3’s defense against opposing small forwards. In 11 games against teams that rank in the bottom five of 3-point defense against small forwards, da Silva is averaging 1.9 makes with a 67% hit rate.

And then there’s da Silva’s home & away splits:

Now, let’s combine those two metrics:

75% hit rate, 2.1 made threes per game at home this season against teams ranked in the bottom five in 3-point defense against small forwards.

We’re again combining home and away splits with matchup data for Nembhard, but the matchup data goes the other way. Let us explain, but first his home and away splits, with this game in Indiana:

And now we mix in that matchup data. The Phoenix Suns rank 4th in 3-point defense against opposing teams’ point guards - a tough matchup for Nembhard, or is it? In his 6 games this season against the top 5-ranked 3-point defenses, Nembhard has averaged 1.8 made threes with a 67% hit rate. And then we add back in those home splits…

He’s a perfect 3/3. Can he make it 4/4?

Coming off back-to-back games with multiple 3’s made, we’re getting Powell at 0.5 3PTM? Oh, ok.

Ever since Egor Demin excited the season with an injury, Powell has seen his 3-point attempt average and minutes average jump:

He’s facing the 27th-ranked Atlanta Hawks’ 3-point defense (against SGs), so the opportunities should be there. Here are his splits depending on how many 3’s he puts up:

In his last 2 games, he has 5+ attempts both times, so let’s hope for some more volume.

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History bodes well for Tyler Herro bettors against the Milwaukee Bucks. Dating back to February 2024, Herro has gone over this 2.5 3PTM line in 6 straight games against the Bucks. What’s even more promising is Herro’s data in strong matchups.

The Bucks rank dead last in 3’s allowed to opposing shooting guards, with 63% of opposing shooting guards clearing their 3PTM line against Milwaukee in their last 30 games. And although it’s a small sample size, Herro has averaged 3.0 made threes with a 75% hit rate in four games against bottom-5 3PTM defenses this season:

His historical head-to-head data leads the charge here, with the matchup data in support.

He has 3 or more made threes in 4 of his last 5 games; that’s why his line is inflated to this number. But this season, he’s only cleared this line in 29% of his games while averaging 1.9 made threes. And his matchup is not a good one - the Dallas Mavericks rank 4th in 3-point defense against opposing small forwards, and when Wells plays top-five 3-point defenses, he struggles.

Even with his opportunity increasing, his season data and matchup data are too much to look at his recent play for his 3PTM line tonight.

Admittedly, we struggled to find a strong trend here, so go forward with caution! What we did find was Jamal Murray’s tendency in back-to-backs on the road. Keep up with us here…

There really isn’t a big change anywhere there - EXCEPT…

On the road, in back-to-backs, his 3PTA average jumps to…9.6!!!! And his 3PTM average is 4.0, with a 71% hit rate.

It’s not much to go on, but the tendency is strange enough that we wanted to bring it to the newsletter. Do with it what you choose!

SGA has 2+ made threes in just 1 of his last 10 games, and 4 of his last 20. Oof.

But there are two factors that drove us to suggest this: his head-to-head data and his weak matchup data.

Head-to-head first: He has 2+ made threes in 3 straight games against the Celtics dating back to last season, including going 2/7 against them earlier this season.

And now the matchup data: the Celtics rank 27th in 3-pointers allowed to opposing PG’s. When Shai faces teams that rank in the bottom five of 3-point defense against opposing PG’s, he’s averaging 2.3 made threes with an 86% hit rate.

Considering he’s only averaging 1.7 made threes with a 48% hit rate this season in all situations, an 86% hit rate is relatively incredible for a single matchup filter.

Buzelis’ season is a tale of two eras. We have the pre-trade deadline Buzelis, and post trade deadline Buzelis. Pre-trade deadline, Buzelis averaged 5.4 3PTA. Post trade deadline, Buzelis is averaging 8.3 3PTA.

And then we mix in his match-up tonight, against the Lakers, who rank 29th in 3-point defense against opposing power forwards, and we get some very encouraging data:

He was also averaging 28.3 minutes per game pre-trade deadline, and is now averaging 30.7 post trade deadline. In his last 10 games, with 30 or more minutes and 7+ attempts from three, he’s averaging 3.5 made threes with a 70% hit rate. C’mon, Matas!

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