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One Trend For Every NFL Game

Between Sunday & Monday, we have 13 games lined up in the NFL, with the Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs & Titans on bye. We kick things off with a game in Berlin, at 9:30 eastern.

• Atlanta @ Indianapolis, in Berlin

There are 7 games in the 1 o’clock window:

• Balitmore @ Minnesota

• New England @ Tampa Bay

• Jacksonville @ Houston

• Cleveland @ New York Jets

• New Orleans @ Carolina

• New York Giants @ Chicago Bears

• Buffalo @ Miami

In the 4:05 and 4:25 window, we have three games:

• Arizona @ Seattle

• LA Rams @ San Francisco

• Detroit @ Washington

And then we close things out with the two primetime games:

• Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers, Sunday Night Football

• Philadelphia @ Green Bay, Monday Night Football

Below, you’ll find one researched trend for each game. There were a few different reasons that we went after some of these trends:

• Edge: Our projections were one of the reasons we chose some of these trends

• DvP (defense vs. position): Strong matchup data was a reason we chose some of these trends.

• Research: Trends that involve taking multiple factors into account, and using them to find the Edge for today’s slate, powered some other trends.

• Partner plays from X (Twitter): We’ve brought some of our favourites from the timeline to this newsletter.

We’ve labeled each trend to clarify which of the four categories that trend falls under. You’ll also find some of the trends are from The Edge Report with KyleJustBets on our YouTube channel.

Now, let’s get into it.

Berlin Game, 9:30 am

ATL @ IND: Alec Pierce, 25.5 Longest Reception

The Basis For This One: Researched

Pierce is the Colts’ long ball option - he’s gone over this line in 6 of his 7 games this season, averaging a longest reception of 37 yards per game. He’s been over this number in four straight, with a catch of 35 yards or more in three straight games.

In the last 4 games for Atlanta, at least one wide receiver has gone over this number:

• DeMario Douglas, NE, 58 yards

• Jaylen Waddle, MIA, 43 yards

• San Francisco, no wide receiver

• Joshua Palmer, BUF, 45 yards

1 PM Window

BAL @ MIN: Edge Report on YouTube

The Basis For This One: Researched Trend from KyleJustBets

For the trend for this game, check out our YouTube video here:

NE @ TB: Edge Report on YouTube

The Basis For This One: Edge Trend

The trend for this game can also be found in our weekly Edge Report, here:

JAX @ HOU: Davis Mills, 0.5 Interceptions

The Basis For This One: DvP

CJ Stroud is out for Houston, Davis Mills gets the ball, and the Jaguars are an elite team at intercepting opposing quarterbacks.

Only the Chicago Bears’ 13 interceptions are better than the Jaguars’ 11 interceptions, with 4 of the 8 quarterbacks to face Jacksonville throwing a pick, and 3 of those QBs have thrown multiple picks.

Mills is coming in to make his first start since week 18, 2023, and this is not a matchup that will be friendly for him.

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CLE @ NYJ: Jerry Jeudy, 37.5 Receiving Yards

The Basis For This One: Partner Trend from X

NO @ CAR: Chuba Hubbard, 0.5 Receiving Yards

The Basis For This One: Edge

Hubbard gets an exceptional Edge here, with our model expecting 10.5 receiving yards.

The reason this line is so low is that Hubbard has zero receiving yards in back-to-back games after averaging 29.5 yards in the previous four games.

The reason he’s had zero in back-to-back games is that he’s yielded the starting job to Rico Dowdle, but even in those two games, he was still targeted at least once. If we get just one catch here, Edge should come through.

NYG @ CHI: Caleb Williams, 18.5 Completions

The Basis For This One: Researched Trend

Williams is averaging more than a full completion than this line, at 19.8, and he’s cleared this line in 75% of his starts in 2025. At home, the average drops a bit to 18.3, but the hit rate is still 67% (2/3).

The Giants rank 24th in pass completions to opposing quarterbacks, and all but one quarterback to face New York has gone over this number this year, with an average of 23.0 completions.

BUF @ MIA: Edge Report on YouTube

The Basis For This One: Researched Trend

The trend for this game can also be found in our weekly Edge Report, here:

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4 PM Window

ARI @ SEA: JSN, 89.5 Receiving Yards

The Basis For This One: Partner Trend from X

DET @ WSH: Jared Goff, 247.5 Passing Yards

The Basis For This One: DvP

Goff has averaged 239.4 yards per game this season, clearing this line in just 38% of his starts. On the road, he’s struggled a bit more against this line, averaging 222 yards with a 25% hit rate.

But it’s his data that gives this trend some hope. He gets an ‘A’ matchup on the Props.Cash App, going up against a Washington Commanders defense that ranks 30th in passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. In their last 10 games, opposing quarterbacks are hitting their line 67% of the time, clearing their lines by an average of 18.93 yards.

In their last 5 games, this is how QBs have fared against Washington:

• Sam Darnold, 330 yards

• Patrick Mahomes, 299 yards

• Dak Prescott, 264 yards

• Caleb Williams, 252 yards

• Justin Herbert, 166 yards

LAR @ SF: Christian McCaffrey,

The Basis For This One: Partner Trend from X

Primetime Games

PIT @ LAC: Instagram On Sunday

Check out our trend for SNF here, posted closer to game time.

PHI @ GB: Edge Report on YouTube

Researched Trend

The trend for this game can also be found in our weekly Edge Report, here:

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See you Tuesday!