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AFC, NFC Championship Games
Here. We. Go.
Pats vs Broncos. Rams vs Seahawks.
The final four quarterbacks in 2026 are…
Matthew Stafford, the 2009 first overall pick
Sam Darnold, the “seeing ghosts” quarterback
Drake Maye, the 2024 third overall pick
And of course, Jarrett Stidham.
Just as we all expected, right?
A weird, but great, year for football. In today’s newsletter, we have three thoughts for each game, and the Big Brain Parlay from Trust The Data at the bottom of the newsletter. And before we start, we have to share this tweet because it’s too crazy not to share:
Now, let’s get into it.
AFC Championship
Jarrett Stidham, 0.5 Interceptions
Laddering this to 2+ interceptions is not out of the question. Just a week ago, the Pats picked off CJ Stroud four times in their divisional win, and they’ve picked off 3 of the last 4 quarterbacks they’ve played.
The last four quarterbacks to play New England
An even more interesting data set to look at is how backup quarterbacks have performed against this defense this season.
Quinn Ewers, interceptions
Brady Cook, interception
Joe Flacco, interception
Dillon Gabriel, two interceptions
Lastly, there’s no individual data for Stidham we can really trust. He’s barely played this season. But he has four interceptions over his last three NFL starts; however, those games were in 2023 and 2024.
Stidham’s L10 games, starting or not starting
Hunter Henry, 39.5 Receiving Yards - Locksmiths Picks
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NFC Championship
Puka Nacua, 7.5 Receptions
Look at his history against the Seahawks this season: 7 & 12 receptions, 8 & 16 targets. He narrowly missed out on this line in their first matchup and flew past this line in their second matchup.
Nacau’s head-to-head data against Seattle
Yes, he was quiet last weekend with 5 receptions on 10 targets. But the targets were still there, and with 10 or more targets this season, he’s averaging 9.1 receptions with a 67% hit rate.
Nacau with 10 or targets
