Three Struggling Players

Nikola Jokic, Paolo Banchero, and RJ Barrett have something in common: they’re struggling to put the ball in the hoop - compared to their season average. Let’s look at each’s last 5 games compared to their season average, or their average before injury (for Banchero).

• Jokic is averaging 18.25 points per game over his last four games, compared to his season average of 30.1 PPG.

• Paolo Banchero has averaged 18.25 points per game over his last four games, compared to his average of 29.0 before his injury.

• RJ Barrett is averaging 17.6 points per game over his last 5 games, compared to 22.4 this season.

Struggling, Or Are There Additional Factors?

We looked at why their points-per-game are down and analyzed their matchup tonight to see if they have a good chance of breaking out. First, Jokic.

Nikola Jokic

Let’s kick things off by looking at Jokic’s last 5 games.

If you eliminate that 35-point performance and focus on his last four games, Jokic is averaging 18.25 points per game. But why? It's not his field goal average that’s the glaring discrepancy, it’s his field goal attempts. In his last four games, Jokic has attempted 13 or fewer shots in every game, and when attempting 13 or fewer this season Jokic is averaging 19.3 points per game this season.

He’s also averaging fewer minutes over these four games, playing 31 or less in 3 of the four. And when Jokic plays 32 or more minutes this season, he averages 32 points per game. The question of whether or not Jokic can snap out of his funk tonight is two-pronged - can he shoot enough, and can he get more minutes?

The main reason Jokic’s minutes are down over their last 4 is that all 4 have been blowouts. The Nuggets won three of the four by 13 or more and lost the other by 20. There’s definitely a risk of another blowout here, with the Nuggets 13.5-point favorites over the 76ers tonight, with Joel Embiid already confirmed out and Paul George a game-time decision.

And the lack of shooting directly links to his lack of minutes. When playing 32 or fewer minutes, Jokic is averaging 13.5 shot attempts, and 8.1 made field goals.

His season average is a whopping 20.5 attempts per game, and 11.5 makes a game.

A lack of minutes means a lack of shots, and that’s the core issue for Jokic over his last 4 games. Tonight may not be the night to count on a Jokic bounce back because of those factors, but if this game is close, looking at him live is the way to approach tonight.

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Paolo Banchero

Banchero broke onto the scene after his injury, scoring 34 points in his return on January 10th, despite playing just 26 minutes. But in the four games since, Banchero is averaging just 18.25 points per game, despite playing the same or more minutes than he did in that first game back.

So, what’s the deal? In one game, he just didn’t shoot enough.

He shot 63% from the field in his second game back, but as you can see, he only attempted 8 shots. In the other three games, he attempted enough shots but didn’t shoot well enough.

In his last three, he shot 40% or worse from the field, and when shooting 40% or worse he’s averaged 16.8 points per game this season (5 games) and when shooting 41% or better, Banchero is averaging 33.6 points per game (5 games)! Even last season his splits from 40 to 41 were just as staggering:

• Banchero averaged 24.1 points per game last season when shooting 41% or better (58 games), and averaged 19.3 points per game when shooting 40% or less (29 games).

So the question for Banchero is simple - will he be able to create enough good looks tonight to get that field goal percentage where it needs to be? His matchup, on paper, suggests he might.

The Raptors allow the 5th most points to small forwards, and the 6th highest field goal percentage to small forwards (44.8%). If Banchero can take advantage of a marquee matchup, he should be worth a look tonight.

RJ Barrett

RJ will be on the same court as Paolo tonight, and he’s looking to break a slump of his own. Although he has back-to-back games of 21 and 20 points, RJ is still averaging just 17.6 points per game, 4.8 less than his season average (22.4). What’s the deal?

RJ, like Jokic, isn’t shooting enough. Over this 6 game stretch, RJ is averaging 15.5 shots per game, a far cry from his average of 18 per game this season. And his splits with different shot attempts tell the story:

• When he attempts 16 shots or less, Barrett averages 18.5 points per game. And when he attempts 17 or more, he averages a whopping 25.5 points per game!

Can RJ put up more shots tonight? We can’t look at his head-to-head data, because he’s never played Orlando as a member of the Raptors. But we can look at the Magic’s defense of shooting guards.

The Magic restrict shooting guards to the 2nd least amount of attempts per game in the NBA, just 16.29. With a points line of 20.5, tonight may be the night to fade or ignore Barrett. A combination of his recent play and the Magic’s defense versus shooting guards, make Barrett not so appealing today. Consider this: just 14% of shooting guards went over their point line versus Orlando over their last 10 games.

Recap

Here’s a quick recap of what the data tells us:

• Jokic isn’t scoring because he’s not shooting enough. He’s not shooting enough because he isn’t playing enough minutes. He isn’t playing enough minutes because of blowouts. And with tonight’s spread of 13.5, it may be another night to avoid Jokic because of the uncertainty.

• Paolo is the best-suited of the three to break out of his slump, against a Raptors defense that leaves a lot to be desired. If he can shoot more, he should be able to take advantage of this matchup.

• Barrett isn’t shooting enough either, but tonight is not the night to hope for more shots from him. The Magic defends shooting guards too well.

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See you Thursday!