Can They Force a Game 6?

The Minnesota Timberwolves squeaked out a 5-point win in game 4, and now they return home with their eyes set on forcing a game 6 back in Dallas. We have 4 trends for game 5 below, plus:

• 2 trends for game 5 of the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers

• 2 trends for game 5 of the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers (Friday)

• The MLB trend of the day

• And the WNBA trend of the day to bring us home

But first…

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NBA Trends

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history, and the road is still long for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but you’d think a win in game 5 would make the Mavericks start to sweat.

Derrick Jones Jr. Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

We’ll start with a Mav trend; Jones has been over this line in 3 of the 4 games this series and 7 of his last 10 games overall.

He’s also played at least 32 minutes in every game so far this series. When he played 32 or more minutes this season, Jones has gone over this line 76% of the time.

Josh Green Over 0.5 Threes

There is no betting trend in these playoffs as consistent as this one. In 12 straight games, Josh Green has hit a three. Can he make it 13?

Jaden McDaniels Over 0.5 Steals

McDaniels is a key part of the Timberwolves, and if they win, he’ll be a key part of guarding the Mavs best. McDaniels has at least one steal in 8 of his last 10 games.

McDaniels has also played at least 32 minutes in every game of this series, and in games where he’s played 32 or more minutes at home this season, McDaniels has had at least one steal 75% of the time.

Mike Conley Over 20.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Conley has cooked this line in the playoffs, going over in 7 of his last 10 games and three of the four games in this series.

Conley must have a big game on the ball if the Timberwolves want to pull out the win.

NHL Trends

Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers

No doubt the Florida Panthers have been the better team in this series, but that doesn’t matter for two reasons: the series is tied at 2, and they haven’t had the best player.

Igor Shesterkin Over 28.5 Saves

Shesterkin has been over this line in 2 straight games, and although he didn’t go over in the first two games of the series, he came very close.

This is worth a look in a must-win game for both teams.

Gustav Forsling Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

If Shesterkin comes through, Forsling will play a role with his shots on goal.

He’s been over this line in 9 straight games. Simple as that.

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars

The Oilers were down early in game 4, and it wasn’t looking good. But they came alive for a big 5-2 win, setting up a massive game 5 swing game that could launch either team that much closer to a Stanley Cup Finals berth.

Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Running this trend back because Hyman has 12 shots on goal over his last two games, and he’s gone over in 3 of the 4 games in this series.

Joe Pavelski Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

Pavelski has not made his mark in this series at all. Zero points, just 4 shots on goal in 3 games…uncharacteristic for a player of Pavelski’s caliber. This is more of a narrative trend, considering he came alive late in both previous series of the Stars’ playoff run.

WNBA Trend of the Day

Washington Mystics vs New York Liberty (Friday)

The Mystics are a bad team overall, but especially on the glass. They rank 11th of 12 in rebounds per game, and the Liberty have one of the best rebounders in the game.

Breanna Stewart Over 9.5 Rebounds

Stewart has been over this line more than she hasn’t this season. And although she missed against the Mystics in the first game of the season, Stewart is more in a rhythm now and we have a big enough sample size on the Mystics to know just how bad they are on the glass.

MLB Trend of the Day

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

There aren’t a lot of strikeout props that the data likes today, but Zac Gallen is may be worth a look.

Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Gallen can have those big strikeouts games, he’s racked up two 10 K performances this season and gone over this 5.5 line in 6 of his last 10 starts.

Plus, the Mets are a top 8 team in strikeouts against righties in their last 15 games.

And will the Mets’ distractions play a role?

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Tuesday Recap

NBA Recap

Anthony Edwards Over 12.5 Rebounds+Assists ✅ Edwards easily went over this, finishing with 10 boards and 9 assists

Naz Reid Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ❌ Reid didn’t get the minutes to get us there, finishing with 6/5/1. He only played 19?!

PJ Washington Over 1.5 3PTM ✅ Washington only shot 2/9 from three, but that’s good enough for us!

Josh Green Over 0.5 3PTM ✅ Green shot 1/3 from three, but that’s also good enough for us!

WNBA

Natasha Cloud Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ❌ Bad read here, she was going up against the best team in the WNBA. We should’ve avoided this. She finished with 9/4/3.

Caitlin Clark Under 3.5 3PTM ✅ Clark dropped thirty, but only hit 3 threes.

NHL

Carter Verhaeghe Over 0.5 Points ✅ Verhaeghe scored a clear-cut green check mark.

Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal ✅ Hyman had 5 shots on goal, an easy check mark.

MLB

Matt Waldron Over 4.5 Strikeouts ✅ Easily went over this line, Waldron had 8 K’s.

Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts ✅ The game was delayed one day, but Skubal came through with 8 K’s.

8/10 on Thursday. Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 64/112 (57%).