MLB Playoffs Arrive, Over/Unders in the NFL
Before we get into our MLB playoff trends, here’s how NFL overs and unders’ played out in week 4, sorted by player position. One player group saw a major shift to the over in week 4 👀
Note: The numbers are listed as such in each week's column (Players who qualified under that line parameter and overs-under).
Position and Line | Week One | Week Two | Week Three | Week Four | What We Can Take Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher | 29 (8-21) 72% went under in week one | 23 (8-15) 65% went under in week two | 18 (8-10) 55% went under in week three | 21 (11-10) 47% went under in week four | For the first time, more QBs went over than under. Something to keep an eye on. |
RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher | 31 (12-19) 63% went under in week one | 29 (19-10) 34% went under in week two | 29 (13-16) 55% went under in week three | 22 (12-10) 45% went under in week four | Running backs have been the most frustrating player group to track, with the over-and-under-flipping every week. |
WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 30 (9-21) 70% went under in week one | 25 (12-13) 52% went under in week two | 23 (11-12) 52% went under in week three | 22 (14-8) 36% went under in week four | Wide receivers had their best week for the over so far. Can it continue in week 5? |
TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 12 (2-10) 83% went under in week one | 12 (6-6) 50% went under in week two | 11 (3-8) 72% went under in week three | 9 (5-4) 44% went under in week four | Tight ends showed some life in week 4, including Travis Kelce. |
MLB Wild Card Betting Trends
The MLB playoffs are here, after the most incredible end to a professional sports season in recent memory:
I mean, check out the FanGraphs win likelihood graph for yesterday’s game!
Absurd end to the season, now let’s get into October!
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jose Altuve loves October, and he loves playing Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
This is strictly a matchup play because Altuve did not come into the playoffs hot by any stretch (over this in 2 of his last 5, just 3 of his last 10) but he has been over this in 13 of his last 15 against Detroit, and he’s always been a machine in October.
Altuve’s H2H versus the Tigers
Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts
The Mets won game 161, which enabled them to hold Severino for this pivotal game one, where he’ll face a Brewers team striking out the 2nd most to righties over their last 15 games.
And 6 expected batters in this Brewers lineup have a K rate above 20% against Severino lifetime, albeit some of those are small sample sizes.
Severino has been over this line in 5 of his last 10 starts, but in all 5 of those misses, he had 5 K’s. Severino did go over when facing the Brewers earlier this season, too. He should go over this in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Trend
One of our key partners, @KyleJustBets, dropped this great write-up for game one of the Braves and Padres. Check it out below:
Kansas City vs Baltimore Orioles Trend
Our friends over on our blog have dropped 4 trends for the MLB matchups today, including a great trend for the other MLB wild card series. Check those out here: =
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Weekend Recap
7-7 this week, with one void. 198/384 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 51% hit rate.
NFL Trends
Najee Harris 17.5 Rsh Att ❌ 13
Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 Rec. Yds ✅ 85
Mixon Anytime TD VOID
Alvin Kamara Over 65.5 Rushing Yds ✅ 77
Kyren Williams Over 18.5 Receiving Yds ❌ 10
Mike Evans Anytime TD ✅
Trey Hendrickson Over 0.5 Sacks ❌ 0
Hall Rsh Yards ❌ Hall had 4 yards.
Murray Rsh Yards ❌ Murray had 3 yards.
Brock Purdy over 28.5 Pass Att. ❌ 27
Bowers Over 39.5 Rec. Yards ❌ 19
Kelce Over 44.5 Rec. Yards ✅
James Cook Under 13.5 Rush Attempts ✅
Tony Pollard Over 50.5 Rsh Yd ✅
DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Rec. Yards ✅