Built for October: the MLB Playoffs Are Here

Plus: How Did the Over/Under Do in Week 4 NFL Action?

Author

Michael Mohorovich
October 01, 2024

MLB Playoffs Arrive, Over/Unders in the NFL

Before we get into our MLB playoff trends, here’s how NFL overs and unders’ played out in week 4, sorted by player position. One player group saw a major shift to the over in week 4 πŸ‘€

Note: The numbers are listed as such in each week's column (Players who qualified under that line parameter and overs-under).

Position and Line

Week One

Week Two

Week Three

Week Four

What We Can Take Away

QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher

29 (8-21)

72% went under in week one

23 (8-15)

65% went under in week two

18 (8-10)

55% went under in week three

21 (11-10)

47% went under in week four

For the first time, more QBs went over than under. Something to keep an eye on.

RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher

31 (12-19)

63% went under in week one

29 (19-10)

34% went under in week two

29 (13-16)

55% went under in week three

22 (12-10)

45% went under in week four

Running backs have been the most frustrating player group to track, with the over-and-under-flipping every week.

WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

30 (9-21)

70% went under in week one

25 (12-13)

52% went under in week two

23 (11-12)

52% went under in week three

22 (14-8)

36% went under in week four

Wide receivers had their best week for the over so far. Can it continue in week 5?

TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

12 (2-10)

83% went under in week one

12 (6-6)

50% went under in week two

11 (3-8)

72% went under in week three

9 (5-4)

44% went under in week four

Tight ends showed some life in week 4, including Travis Kelce.

The MLB playoffs are here, after the most incredible end to a professional sports season in recent memory:

I mean, check out the FanGraphs win likelihood graph for yesterday’s game!

Absurd end to the season, now let’s get into October!

Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Jose Altuve loves October, and he loves playing Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

This is strictly a matchup play because Altuve did not come into the playoffs hot by any stretch (over this in 2 of his last 5, just 3 of his last 10) but he has been over this in 13 of his last 15 against Detroit, and he’s always been a machine in October.

Altuve’s H2H versus the Tigers

Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts

The Mets won game 161, which enabled them to hold Severino for this pivotal game one, where he’ll face a Brewers team striking out the 2nd most to righties over their last 15 games.

And 6 expected batters in this Brewers lineup have a K rate above 20% against Severino lifetime, albeit some of those are small sample sizes.

Severino has been over this line in 5 of his last 10 starts, but in all 5 of those misses, he had 5 K’s. Severino did go over when facing the Brewers earlier this season, too. He should go over this in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Trend

One of our key partners, @KyleJustBets, dropped this great write-up for game one of the Braves and Padres. Check it out below:

Kansas City vs Baltimore Orioles Trend

Our friends over on our blog have dropped 4 trends for the MLB matchups today, including a great trend for the other MLB wild card series. Check those out here: =

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Weekend Recap

7-7 this week, with one void. 198/384 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 51% hit rate.

Najee Harris 17.5 Rsh Att βŒ 13

Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 Rec. Yds βœ… 85

Mixon Anytime TD VOID

Alvin Kamara Over 65.5 Rushing Yds βœ… 77

Kyren Williams Over 18.5 Receiving Yds βŒ 10

Mike Evans Anytime TD βœ…

Trey Hendrickson Over 0.5 Sacks βŒ 0

Hall Rsh Yards βŒ Hall had 4 yards.

Murray Rsh Yards βŒ Murray had 3 yards.

Brock Purdy over 28.5 Pass Att. ❌ 27

Bowers Over 39.5 Rec. Yards βŒ 19

Kelce Over 44.5 Rec. Yards βœ…

James Cook Under 13.5 Rush Attempts βœ…

Tony Pollard Over 50.5 Rsh Yd βœ…

DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Rec. Yards βœ