NBA & Stanley Cup Finals in the Same Boat

The Dallas Mavericks are in a 0-2 hole.

The Edmonton Oilers are in a 0-2 hole.

We won’t have NHL trends in this issue, game three isn’t until Thursday. But below you’ll find NBA game three trends, MLB trends for Tuesday, and two WNBA trends. But first…

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NBA Game Three Trends

NBA teams with a 2-0 series lead in the NBA Finals have gone on to win the series 86% of the time, so the Dallas Mavericks are in serious trouble.

Derrick Jones Jr. Over 8.5 Points

Derrick Jones Jr. has been much better at home over his last 10 games, averaging a point and a half more on home court than he has on the road (10.6 > 9 PPG).

As you can see in the chart above, he’s been over this line in 7 of his last 10 home games, plus he had 11 points in game 2.

Jrue Holiday Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Jrue Holiday has been dynamite for the Celtics throughout the playoffs, going over this line in 8 of his last 10 games.

And four straight road games.

Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 Turnovers

Tatum has 9 (!!!!!!) turnovers in the first two games of this series, and he’s been over this line in 8 of his last 10 games.

This is a must-win for the Dallas Mavericks, so fading the Celtics’ best player with this data feels like a good spot.

MLB Trends

Triston McKenzie Over 4.5 Strikeouts

McKenzie is one of the most consistent strikeout pitchers against this line in all of baseball, he’s been over this line in 9 straight starts.

And he gets a great matchup against Cincinnati, who strike out the 3rd most in all of baseball against righties this season.

Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Fried has 25 K’s over his last three starts, he’s been a strikeout machine. His recent data, combined with his matchup tonight, makes this an attractive trend.

WNBA Trends

Allisha Gray Over 15.5 Points

The head-to-head data is encouraging; Gray has been over this line in 5 straight games against the Mystics.

She’s averaging 16 points per game this season and 46.8% from three, the latter being a career-best.

Alanna Smith Under 13.5 Points+Assists

Smith’s history against the Aces is not good for anyone on the over, which means it’s great for the under.

Smith will have to deal with A’ja Wilson down low, something no one in the WNBA usually succeeds at.

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Tuesday and Thursday Recap

Between the 4 carry-over plays from Tuesday’s newsletter and all the plays from Thursday’s newsletter, we went 4 for 10 last week. 75/139 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th (54%). We rebound this week.

NBA Trends Recap

Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points ❌ Doncic finished with 31, so close.

Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points+Assists ❌ Holiday had 17. Again, so close.

P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3PTM ❌ 0 for P.J., tough.

Al Horford Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ✅ Horford ended the losing streak.

Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points ❌ Tatum may be worth avoiding for the rest of the Finals or playing the under. They’re winning without him scoring, he’s contributing in other ways.

Luka Over 3.5 3PTM ✅ Luka didn’t get the points we needed, but he hit 4 threes.

NHL Trends Recap

Certer Verhaeghe Over 0.5 Goals ✅ Verhaeghe came through.

Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Goals ❌ The Oilers have 1 goal in two games, not great.

MLB Trends Recap

Sonny Gray Over 6.5 K’s ❌ Gray was tuned up in the first inning, settled down for the rest of his innings, but couldn’t come up with 7 K’s. The first inning cooked us. He finished with 5.

Javier Assad Over 4.5 K’s ✅ Assad cooked with 7 K’s.