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Closing Out The NFL Season

By (roughly) 11:30 PM Eastern, the 7 playoff teams in both conferences, the division leaders, and the number one seeds will be decided. The 6 wild card matchups will be set. Everything will be ready to go for the NFL playoffs.

But before that - we have 14 games to enjoy!

For this week's touchdown analysis, we analyzed three games and three players, and we examined each game through a different lens.

1. A game with something left to play for.

2. A player looking to cash in (and with something to play for)

3. The game of the week.

1. Devon Achane - Dolphins RB (Something to Play For)

If the Dolphins win, and the Broncos lose, they're in.

Touchdown Tracker: 9 TDs in 16 games this season. Downside: Achane has been much more potent at home, scoring at a much higher rate than on the road. Miami is on the road for week 18.

Matchup: Dolphins at Jets

Jets' defense allows 0.58 rushing TDs per game to RBs, ranking 14th in the league. But here’s the kicker: 4 of the last 5 starting RBs to face them have found the endzone—including Achane, who scored against them on December 8.

Achane has been a key weapon in Miami’s offense, and with the Dolphins’ playoff hopes on the line, and Tua doubtful to play, Achane should be a key part of their gameplan today.

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2. Zach Ertz - Commanders TE (Looking to Cash In)

The Commanders are still playing for playoff seeding, and a win would go a long way for them. But Zach Ertz has a little more on the line.

Bonus Alert: Ertz can earn an additional $750K by hitting the following targets:

• 9 catches

• 90 receiving yards

• 2+ touchdowns

All of these targets are pretty hefty. So hefty that he’s never done two of them this season (9 catches, 90 yards), but he has had a 2 TD game.

Recent Form: Ertz had a 2-TD game last week and has found the end zone 5 times in 16 games. However, he has just one TD on the road this season.

Matchup: Commanders at Cowboys

Dallas allows 1.42 receiving TDs per game, ranking 19th in the league. Ertz caught a touchdown against the Cowboys earlier this season (December 8).

With a financial incentive to perform and a defense that’s been generous to tight ends, Ertz could be in for another big game.

3. Game of the Week: Vikings vs. Lions (SNF)

This divisional clash will decide the #1 seed in the NFC, so expect fireworks. Here’s a quick breakdown of potential touchdown scorers from both teams:

Can Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Score for the 3rd Straight Game vs. the Lions?

Matchup: Detroit allows the most yards per game to WRs but is much tougher when it comes to touchdowns, surrendering just 0.75 receiving TDs per game, ranking 9th in the league.

Can Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) Extend His TD Streak Against the Vikings?

St. Brown has scored in three straight games vs. Minnesota. This is a much better matchup for him, as the Vikings give up 1.17 receiving touchdowns per game to WRs, ranking 6th worst in the league.

The Running Backs: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) & Aaron Jones (Packers)

Both backs are obvious touchdown threats, especially in this high-stakes divisional game. But here’s a deeper dive into their potential:

Jahmyr Gibbs:

Gibbs has scored in every divisional game except one this year. Against Minnesota, he’s been particularly lethal, with 5 TDs in his last 3 games against them, including two multi-TD games.

The Vikings give up 0.33 rushing TDs per game to RBs (4th best), but they are more vulnerable to running backs in the air, allowing 0.17 receiving TDs per game (20th).

Aaron Jones:

Jones has scored in 3 of 5 divisional matchups this season, and the Lions give up 0.58 rushing TDs per game to RBs (13th).

Gibbs and Jones are both going to play major roles in the fight for the #1 seed on SNF, but will they find the end zone?

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See you Tuesday!