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Mitchell Needs the Line. Cade Can't Have It. Harden Needs More Threes.
The Cleveland Cavaliers enter tonight looking to tie up their series, with the Cavs dropping game one to the Pistons 111-101.
What can we learn from game one? That’s the focus of today’s newsletter - three takeaways from the series, and how those takeaways can be used to shape your bets for game two.
Let’s get into it.
Cavs/Pistons, Game 2
Here are our three takeaways:
1. Mitchell HAS To Get To The Line
Mitchell only had two free throws in game one, and this postseason, he has not gotten to the line nearly enough.
In the playoffs, Mitchell is averaging 2.3 free throw attempts per game, far below his average of 6.2 in the regular season. Here are his points per page, split amongst his free throw attempts (regular season + playoffs):
1-4 FTA's per game: 25 games, 21.1 PPG
5-8 FTA's per game: 24 games, 31.6 PPG
9 or more FTA's per game: 18 games, 31.6 PPG
And when Mitchell gets to the line at an average or above average pace, the Cavs win. In 45 games this season, Mitchell has 5 or more free throw attempts, and in those 45 games, the Cavs have won 33 times. In the 33 games with 4 or fewer attempts from the line for Mitchell, the Cavs have only won 16 times.
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2. Cavs Can’t Foul Cade
The Cavs need Mitchell to get to the line, and they can’t let Cade get to the line 11 times.
This season, Cunningham has averaged 6.5 free throw attempts per game this season, and 10.6 free throw attempts in the playoffs. In game one, the Cavs let Cade get to the line 11 times. As dramatic as Mitchell’s splits are, Cade’s are even more dramatic:
1-5 FTA’s per game: 28 games, 20.6 PPG
6-9 FTA’s per game: 21 games, 24.6 PPG
10+ FTA’s per game: 23 games, 29.7 PPG
Giving Cade 11 free throws is not a winning strategy for the Cavs.
3. Harden Needs To Get More 3’s Up
James Harden attempted 7 threes in game one. Even going back to their first-round series against the Raptors, Harden has had 8 or fewer attempts from three in all but one game this postseason. And when you look at his splits depending on his attempts, it’s noteworthy. One last thing to note: he’s averaging 8.1 attempts from three per game this year.
0-6 3PTA per game: 27 games, 20.2 points per game
7-9 3PTA per game: 30 games, 22.2 points per game
10+ 3PTA per game: 21 games, 28.9 points per game
Let’s dive a bit further and look at these splits in games with Donovan Mitchell and how many of those games the Cavs have won:
0-6 3PTA per game: 13 games, 17.8 points per game, 9 wins
7-9 3PTA per game: 15 games, 21.6 points per game, 9 wins
10+ 3PTA per game: 2 games, 24.5 points per game, 2 wins
Of the 17 games with 7 or more attempts from 3, in games with Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs have won 64.7% of their games.
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