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234 in Regulation

The over/under for game two of the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers at a few sportsbooks is around 224, even though game one had just 234 points in regulation and another 27 points in overtime. A lot of player props went over with all the scoring in game one, something we will highlight with our betting trends below. We went 5-3 on Tuesday, so let’s build on this momentum with a big weekend ahead; our NBA, NHL, and MLB trends are below, but first…

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NBA Trends

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics Game Two

If you’re on betting Twitter, you likely saw how many decent-sized parlays and bets were won because of the high scoring in game one. Can they do it again?

Jrue Holiday Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Holiday destroyed this line in game one, finishing with a combined 42 points, rebounds, and assists. He’s been over this in 3 of his last 5 games overall and 11 of his last 13 games against the Pacers. He went over this line by the end of the 3rd quarter in game one, the 4th quarter and OT were just the cherry on top.

Sam Hauser Over 3.5 Points

Hauser only played 9 minutes in game one, and only attempted 2 field goals. We’re banking on Hauser being more involved in game two; when he attempts 3 or more field goals, Hauser has been over this line 85% of the time this season. In all 5 playoff games where he attempted 3 or more shots, he went over this line.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 19.5 Points

Tyrese Haliburton had 20 points in the third quarter of game one, scored no points in the 4th, and added 5 more in OT. No sweat for this one in game one. He’s also been over this line in 7 of his last 11 games against Boston.

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Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game Two

The Mavs narrowly won game one on the road, so does this fall under the “must-win” category for the Timberwolves? Or can they afford to go back to Dallas down 2-0? Time will tell.

Karl-Anthony Towns Under 31.5 Pts+Reb+Assists

For whatever reason, KAT can’t it going at home in the playoffs.

He’s been under this line in every home playoff game. The data tells the story here.

Daniel Gafford Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds

Gafford barely played in the first round against the Clippers but since game one of the second round against OKC, he’s been over this line in 6 of his last 7 games. Including game one, where he finished with 19 points and rebounds.

NHL Trends

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars are trying to get to their first Stanley Cup Finals since the bubble, and the Edmonton Oilers are back in the Western Conference Finals for the second year in a row. Who books their ticket?

Joe Pavelski Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

Riding the hot hand here…

Pavelski was asleep (we assume) for the Stars’ first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights, registering just 6 shots on goal all series. But he came alive against Colorado, registering 13 shots, and going over this line in 4 of the 6 games.

Zach Hyman Over 0.5 Goals

Hyman had three quiet games during the Vancouver series but in the other 9 Oilers playoff games, he’s been a force.

He has 4 goals combined in the first two games one’s so far this playoffs, so let’s see if that trend continues Thursday night.

Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers

We’re running back a trend that we didn’t come through in game one:

Mike Zibanejad and Vincent Trochek Over 0.5 Points

If the Rangers are to avoid the 2-0 hole heading back to Florida, their best two players so far these playoffs will need to show up and show up big. New York was shut out in game one, they’ll come out flying Friday night.

MLB Trend of the Day

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox, 7 pm

This one may surprise you, but hear us out…

Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases

Mountcastle has been awful over his last 10 games, no denying that.

But the slump has to end eventually, right? Tonight is a good spot for that for two reasons: White Sox starter Mike Clevinger has been mashed by righties, to the tune of a .364 opponent batting average. And in his two career plate appearances against him, Mountacastle is .500 with a single.

Small sample size, but the two pieces of data together give us hope here.

Tuesday Recap

NBA

Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points ✅ OT sweat! Tatum finished with 36, a massive game one.

Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points+Assists ✅ Easy over, 28 points and 8 assists for Jrue.

Obi Toppin Over 13.5 P+R+A ✅ Easy over again! Obi had 15/4/2.

Derrick Jones Jr. Over 12.5 P+R+A ✅ Somewhat of a sweat, with Jones Jr. finishing with 8/4/2

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds ❌ Bad read, KAT at home has been brutal in the playoffs. He finished with 23 total.

NHL

Vincent Trochek and Mika Zibanejad Over 0.5 Points ❌ The Rangers got shut out, nothing more to it.

Sergei Bobrovsky Over 26.5 Saves ❌ Of course the Rangers get shut out but only muster 23 shots.

MLB

Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 Strikeouts ✅ 6 K’s for Mr. Bradish will give us the check mark here.

5/8 on Tuesday. Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 50/94 (53%).

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