On The Brink

There are six teams across the NHL and NBA fighting for their lives tonight. The Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA, the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Islanders, Winnipeg Jets, and the Nashville Predators in the NHL. We’ve got a trend for each of those games, but first…

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NBA Elimination Trends

New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers Game 5

The 76ers season is on the line, and the focus will be on Joel Embiid tonight.

Tyrese Maxey Over 36.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

But Tyrese Maxey is the #2 on this team, and he’s been playing like it in this series. He’s 2/4 on this line in round one, but his two misses were so close. He hit in both games in New York, so with the series shifting back to the Big Apple we’re highlighting him here.

Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 (Non-elimination)

This series is tied 2-2, and it’s the only non-elimination game between the two leagues tonight, but we wanted to highlight a trend from this game anyway.

Max Strus Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Strus was way under this line in both games in Orlando but over this line in games 1 & 2 on home court. With the series shifting back to Cleveland, Strus should be able to bounce back. He was over this line 73% of the time at home this season.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 5

The Pacers can take out the Bucks tonight, and Andrew Nembhard has played a key role in the Pacers’ lead.

Andrew Nembhard Over 14.5 Points+Assists

He’s played a big role in this series, playing 30 or more minutes in 3 of 4 games.

And when he plays 30 or more minutes, he’s been over this line in 7 of 9 games on the road this season.

MLB Home Run Trends of the Day

Aaron Judge vs Dean Kremer

The night before a start against Aaron Judge, Dean Kremer probably gets night sweats.

In just 10 plate appearances, Judge has 3 home runs against Kramer. And the weather at Cambden Yards plays in Judge’s favor, too.

Bryce Harper vs Tyler Anderson

Just as Aaron Judge has owned Dean Kremer, Bryce Harper has owned Tyler Anderson.

3 home runs in 12 plate appearances for Harper, who gets a favorable ballpark in Angel Stadium.

NHL Elimination Trends

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Game 5

We’ve seen this movie before. Leafs, Bruins, Game 5 in Boston with the Bruins one game away from ending an era of Maple Leafs hockey.

Max Domi Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

Domi has been over this line in 3 of the 4 games in this series, and if the Leafs are going to have any chance of staying alive, they’ll need their supporting cast to step up once again.

New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes Game 5

It took overtime in game 4 for the Islanders to stay alive, and they’ll need another stout defensive effort tonight if they’re going to do it again.

Robert Bortuzzo Over 1.5 Blocked Shots

Bortuzzo has gone over this line in three of the first four games in this series, including both games on the road where he blocked 9 shots combined in games 1 & 2.

Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets Game 5

The Stanley Cup hasn’t come north of the border in over 30 years, and tonight two Canadian teams could go down swinging. Can the Jets stay alive?

Valeri Nichushkin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

In a series with a bunch of stars, we’re going to focus on the hot shooter. Nichushkin has been over this line in all 4 games of the series, averaging 4 shots per game.

Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks Game 5

Brock Boeser was a machine in game 4. He scored two goals in the final 4 minutes to polish off his hat trick and force overtime.

Brock Boeser Over 0.5 Points

Riding the hot hand here. Boeser has points in three of the first four games in this series, and the Canucks can put the Predators to bed. If they do, the hottest Canuck will surely play a role.

Thursday Recap

Home Run Play of the Day: Corey Seager ❌ Seager had good data ahead of his matchup with Luis Castillo, but couldn’t come through

NBA 2/3

Isaac Okoro Over 7.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ❌ In the write-up, we spoke about Okoro needing 20 minutes to get it done and it looked like he would get the minutes. But he played just 16, scored zero points, and added 3 points & assists combined. Ugly stuff.

Joel Embiid Over 48.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ✅ Embiid got this with his points alone, dropping 50 in a must-win game. He added 8 boards and 4 assists to me safe.

LeBron James Over 8.5 Assists ✅ It was close, but James got it done finishing with 9 assists.

NHL 2/3

Brayden Points Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ❌ Point was a ghost in the Lightnings’ first home game, registering zero points and zero shots on goal.

Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots On Goal ✅ Verhaeghe had 3 shots on goal and 2 points in a big Panthers win.

Matthew Barzal Over 2.5 Shots On Goal ✅ This was a must-win game for the Islanders, and although they didn’t win, Barzal played like he knew it. He was all over the ice, finishing with 4 shots on goal.

Overall

We were over .500 Thursday, going 4/7. Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 17/32 (52%).

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