Full Steam Ahead…for the Projection Model

Baseball is back, the NHL& NBA are in playoff push mode, Caitlin Clark and Iowa are into the final four of the women’s March Madness bracket, and the men’s final four is set for next weekend in Arizona. Oh, and the Masters are right around the corner. There’s no better time to be a sports fan, we’re headed for some of the best moments of the year.

We’re using this Tuesday’s newsletter to highlight trends and insights that our projection model likes; let’s put it to the test.

So, let’s get into it.

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NBA: The Projection Model

Ivica Zubac Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds

Our projection model likes Clippers center Ivica Zubac to go over this line by 3.16 points and rebounds, and good for a reason. Zubac has gone over this line in 63% of his games this season and in two of three games against the Sacramento Kings so far this season.

The data is also encouraging lately for Zubac, who’s cooked this line in four of his last five games.

Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 3PTM

Donte DiVincenzo has been on fire from beyond the arc in his last five games, his last fifteen games, his last twenty games, and his last thirty gam- you get the point. This dude can shoot from deep.

He’s also been shooting 37% from three in his last 30 games. Among players who took 100 or more three-point attempts in that stretch, that’s good for the fourth-highest made percentage behind D’Angelo Russell, Stephen Curry, and Luka Doncic. That’s great company to be in. And then there’s his matchup tonight: the Heat are ranked dead last in the NBA guarding the three against shooting guards this season.

MLB: The Projection Model

Adolis Garcia Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

In his first start of the season, Zach Eflin was lit up by the Toronto Blue Jays for 6 earned runs on 6 hits. And today his matchup is a lot tougher, this Rangers lineup is no joke. And the number four hitting, Adolis Garcia, has blown past this line in 3 of his 4 games this season.

And like I said, this newsletter is all about our projection model, which likes Garcia to go over this line by 1.7 H+R+R tonight.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

There are a few things to like about Freddie Freeman tonight: the projection model, his historical data against San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb & his numbers at home against the Giants are fantastic. Let’s start with the projection model:

And then there’s his numbers against Giants starter Logan Webb:

And lastly, his numbers at home against the Giants over the last two seasons are outrageously good.

NHL: The Projection Model

Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots On Goal

Eight games in the NHL tonight, 16 teams, so that’s roughly 288 skaters. And of all of them, our projection model likes Sam Reinhart against Montreal the most.

Montreal is atrocious defensively, they’re bottom five in every defensive metric including shots on goal against, where they’re 4th last in the NHL.

And Reinhart has been over this line in two of three games against Montreal this season, averaging three shots on goal against them.

Jack Hughes Over 0.5 Assists

The model doesn’t love this spot as much as others that we’ve highlighted, but the it still likes this spot for Jack Hughes to some degree.

It’s probably his history against the Penguins, where Hughes has assists in four straight games against Pittsburgh, including two multiple assists games.

The matchup for Hughes in the crease is also a good one. Penguins’ projected starting goalie Tristan Jarry has allowed 3 or more goals in four straight starts.