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In this week’s newsletter, we’re highlighting big games in the NBA tonight with major playoff implications, some trends for the final four in March Madness this weekend, and a few interesting pitcher/batter matchups for tonight’s small slate.

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Playoff Implications in the NBA

76ers vs Heat

The 76ers are just a game and a half back of the Miami Heat for 6th place and avoiding the play-in tournament. If they want a chance of catching them, this game is a must-win for Philly. Miami has a game in hand, and there are only 7 games left, so the hill is steep.

Joel Embiid Under 26.5 Points

We’re fading the best player on the court, only because of injury management. Embiid is on a minutes restriction in his second game back from his knee injury. In his last two games against Miami, Embiid has gone under this numbers once and over once, but the over he only hit by one. And those were without a minutes restriction.

And Miami is one of the best rim-defending teams in the NBA, holding centers under this number in 9 straight games.

Warriors vs Rockets

The Houston Rockets are three games back of Golden State for the final play-in spot, and they’re running out of time. They only have 8 games left, this is a must-win for Houston. Here are two trends that have hit at a 100% rate historically between these two teams:

Dillon Brooks Over 13.5 Pts + Reb

In his last 6 games against the Warriors, Brooks hasn’t missed this points and rebounds line. And his data for the season and recently at home are encouraging, too.

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3PTM

Curry has hit this line in 5 straight games against the Rockets, dating back to 2022. And here’s a niche filter that makes this look even better: on one day’s rest versus Western Conference teams, Curry has been over this line in 61% of his games this season.

Final Four Trends

DJ Burns Over 14.5 Points

The battle between Zach Edey and DJ Burns is going to be one for the ages. After watching how Burns was able to beat Duke’s Kyle Filipowski in the Elite Eight, we like Burns to do it again in the Final Four.

Stephon Castle Over 15.5 Pts + Rebounds

Can anyone beat UConn? Right now it doesn't look good, and Stephon Castle has been a huge part of that. He’s only been over this line in 2 of 4 tournament games, but both starting guards for Clemson, whom Alamaba beat in the Elite Eight, went over this line.

One MLB Batter/Pitcher Matchup

Steven Kwan has mangled Twins starter Pablo Lopez, albeit in a small sample size. But mangled nonetheless.

And it’s not just Kwan, the Guardians lineup has great data against Lopez.

Guardians’ first 5 innings might be worth a look today, in addition to any player prop you may like from this game.