Giveaway and the Projection Model

Happy Thursday! Competitive Edge is here again to give you the edge in your betting tonight. But first, a reminder: we’re giving away a hoodie! If you want a props.cash hoodie, sign up for props.cash with the code “Newsletter” to be entered into a draw to win. Sign up below! (the deadline is May 3rd, draw is May 4th)

On April 2nd, we tested our projection model, and it went 5 for 6!

Ivica Zubac over 18 Points+Rebounds ✅ He had 11 points, 11 boards
Donte DiVincenzo over 3.5 3PTM ✅ He had 5 three’s
Adolis Garcia over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ He had 1 hit and 1 run
Freddie Freeman over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ He had 3 hits and 1 RBI
Sam Reinhart over 2.5 Shots on Goal ✅ He had 4 shots on goals
Quinn Hughes over 0.5 Assists ❌ He had 2 goals, but no assists

So, let’s run it back!

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NBA: The Projection Model

Jalen Brunson Over 40.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

The model loves this spot for Brunson, mainly because of his play lately. He’s not only been over this line in 4 straight games but he’s destroyed this line in 4 straight games.

And if niche-filtered trends are up your alley, when Brunson plays on Thursdays on one day’s rest he’s gone over this line in 4 of 6 games this season.

Jonas Valanciunas Over 9.5 Points

This isn’t about Tey Murphy, this is about Jonas Valanciunas. The model likes this spot for him, and his history against the Sacramento Kings has to be a contributing factor to the model liking Valanciunas tonight.

He’s also been over this line in 4 of his last 5 games, too. Plus, the last two starting centers to play the Kings have gone over this line, even though they didn’t hit theirs.

MLB: The Projection Model

Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

The model loves this spot for Bryan Reynolds, projecting him to go over this HRR line by 2.5. Reynolds faces lefty Ranger Suarez and so far this season, Reynolds has demolished left-handed pitchers, hitting .412 against them with three extra-base hits including two home runs.

Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Total Bases

Brandon Marsh is off to a solid start to the season, with at least one base in 8 of 11 games and in 4 of 5 home games.

And he’s mashing right-handed pitchers, hitting .417 with three home runs.

NHL: The Projection Model

Semyon Varlamov Over 25.5 Saves

The Islanders are in the midst of an epic playoff race, with 4 teams fighting for one wild card spot and a few of those teams fighting for the third position in the metropolitan division.

Varlamov has snagged the number one spot from Ilya Sorokin, and the model likes him to keep his hot play going. He’s been over this line in 7 straight games, and in 4 of those games, he’s been over this line by 4 or more saves.

Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots On Goal

Sam Reinhart came through for us in the last projection newsletter, so we’re highlighting him again here. The model likes him to go over this line by 1.62 shots on goal.

The Blue Jackets are brutal defensively, giving up the second most shots on goal per game in the league.

The model must be looking at Reinhart’s recent play, he’s hit this line in 7 of his last 10 games averaging 5.5 shots attempts per game in that span.

As I said, the last projection newsletter went 5 for 6. What can we do this week? We’ll recap on Tuesday.