Competitive Edge: The Props.Cash Newsletter

Author

Michael Mohorovich
April 25, 2024

The Big 3

The newsletter will have a bit of a rhythm over the next couple of months with how the sports schedule is shaping up: our Home Run matchup of the day, one trend for each NBA playoff game tonight, and one trend for each Stanley Cup Playoff game tonight. We’ll mix in other trends where we see fit, but let’s get into this week’s newsletter.

Table of Contents

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

Home Run Pick of the Day (2:35 pm)

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, but when he does they’re usually to left-handed hitters. This year, Castillo has given up 3 bombs, all to lefties.

And last year, he gave up 28 home runs; 20 were to lefties. Today, he gets the Texas Rangers, a team with a lot of power throughout the lineup. And the best lefty bat is in the 2-hole with Corey Seager.

Corey Seager Over 0.5 Home Runs

Seager smashed 33 home runs in 2023, 27 of those were off of righties. But Seager is off to an unseasonably cold start to 2024, with just one home run and it was the 5th game of the season. Can he break out of the cold streak tonight?

He only has 11 plate appearances against Castillo, and no home runs to speak of, but he does have a .300 batting average with three singles.

NBA Trends

Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3

Isaac Okoro Over 7.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

When Okoro gets the minutes, this trend has easily gone over. He’s hit this line 93% of the time when playing 20 or more minutes. In game one of this series, Okoro only played 19 minutes and managed just 6 points, rebounds, and assists. But in game two, Okoro was counted on more, playing 25 minutes and ending with 11 points, rebounds, and assists.

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks Game 3

Joel Embiid Over 48.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Joel Embiid at home, in a must-win game, after calling the series? The narrative here alone is worth a look. And the data is the cherry on top.

At home this season, Embiid has gone over this line in 72% of his games and 75% of his games on 2 days rest.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Game 3

LeBron James Over 8.5 Assists

LeBron James back at home, in a must-win game? Just like Embiid, the narrative alone is juicy. And the data is there to back it up. James has been over this line in 88% of his home games with 2 days’ rest this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Game 3

Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots On Goal

Brayden Point went over this line in 2 of his 3 home playoff games last year against Toronto, totaling 11 shots in 3 games. And in a must-win game for the Lightning, Point will have to be involved. He’s also been over this line in 73% of his games at home this season and in 5 straight home games against the Panthers.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Game 3

Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots On Goal

Sam Bennett is week-to-week for the Florida Panthers with an upper-body injury, so they’ll need someone to step up in his absence. Enter: Carter Verhaeghe. Without Bennett in the lineup this season, it has opened the door for Verhaeghe to get even more involved than he usually is. And it’s converted to solid shots on goal numbers, with Verhaeghe going over this line in 85% of his games without Bennett this season.

New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes Game 3

Matthew Barzal Over 2.5 Shots On Goal

Sticking with the must-win game trend, the Islanders return home down 2-0 after a horrible collapse in game 2. They need more from their best player, Matt Barzal, and that starts with his lack of scoring. He hasn’t scored in 11 games, but at home, he’s still getting pucks on the net. He’s gone over this line in 69% of his starts on Long Island this season.

Tuesday Recap

NBA Recap - 1/4

Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Home Runs ❌ Betts had a hit, but no home run against Patrick Corbin.

Naz Reid Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists ❌ Reid didn’t get the minutes here, scoring just 5 boards and grabbing 2 boards in 17 minutes.

Damian Lillard Over 36.5 Points + Assists ✅ Lillard had 34 points and 5 assists, no sweat here.

Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds ❌ This one hurt, he finished with 23 points and 6 boards and had a free throw late in the fourth that would’ve gotten this done.

NHL Recap

Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal ✅ Zibanejad easily went over this, getting 6 pucks on net.

Nick Paul Over 1.5 Shots on Goal ✅ Paul came through, managing 3 shots on goal in a 3-2 overtime loss.

Connor Hellebuyck Over 29.5 Saves ❌ Burned by a fourth-period lead. The Jets were down 4-2 most of the period, so they controlled the puck and the Avalanche only had three shots on goal in the 3rd, including an empty net goal.

Overall

Tuesday was tough, 3/7 overall. Since we started tracking the newsletter 4 editions ago (April 16th) we’ve gone 13/25 (52%). It's still in the positive, but let’s hope we build further this week.