Is There A Better Time To Be A Sports Fan?

The NBA Playoffs & the Stanley Cup Playoffs have just started, and Major League Baseball is at that point of the season where the data is piling up to a point where you can see 2024 trends fall into place. The only thing we’re missing is the NFL, which is still 135 days away. But anyway! Let’s get into some playoff trends and the best home run matchup of the day.

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Home Run Matchup of the Day

Patrick Corbin, or as I like to call him “Mr. I love to give up the long ball”, has given up 30 or more home runs in two of the last three seasons, and the one year he didn’t give up 30, he gave up 27. If you look at his home run-per-plate appearance against righties, it’s alarmingly high.

On average this season, every 25th righty is hitting a home run against Corbin. So when was the last time he gave one up? Last Wednesday. And it was against the same LA Dodgers team he’s playing today. Now let’s identify a righty in the Dodgers lineup who can take advantage of the matchup…

Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Home Runs

He already has a home run vs Corbin in his career in just 14 plate appearances, and Betts is “due”. He doesn’t have a home run in 8 straight games, and the weather at Nationals Park benefits Betts.

NBA Playoffs

Timberwolves vs Suns Game 2

The Minnesota Timberwolves destroyed the Phoenix Suns in game one, and although Naz Reid went under this points, assists, and rebounds line, we’re highlighting it for a couple of reasons.

Naz Reid Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

At home this season when he plays 19 minutes or more, the amount of minutes he played in game one, he’s gone over this line 71% of the time and never gone three straight games at home without going over. Let’s hope he can keep that “avoiding three in a row” trend going.

Bucks vs Pacers Game 2

If Giannis plays, ignore this trend. Damian Lillard has played 5 home games this season without Giannis in the lineup. How did he fair against his points and assists line in those games? Let’s find out.

Damian Lillard Over 36.5 Points+Assists

He’s a perfect 5-0 with those parameters, including 38 points and assists in game one. He’s the primary ball handler with Giannis out, so again this trend only applies if Giannis doesn’t play game two like he didn’t play game one.

Clippers vs Mavericks Game 2

The Dallas Mavericks were outscored 56-30 in the first half of game one on Sunday but bounced back in the second half outscoring the Clippers 67-53. Kyrie in the first half? 9 combined points and rebounds. Kyrie in the second half? 29 combined points and rebounds.

Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 Points+Rebounds

He'll go over this line as long as he has at least a mildly better first half compared to game one. He’s also been over this line in every game against the Clippers this season.

NHL Playoffs

Rangers vs Capitals Game 2

The Rangers took it to the Capitals in game one, and head-to-head at home, Mika Zibanejad has consistently found a way to put the puck on the net against Washington.

Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

He’s been over this line in 5 of his last 6 at home against Washington, including game one of this series where he registered 4 shots on goal.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 2

The Panthers squeaked out a game-one win, and if the Lightning come back to tie the series at one before it shifts to Tampa Bay, the big boys will have to come through. But their playoff success in recent years has also come because the bottom of their lineup has always played a key role.

Nick Paul Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

Nick Paul has been one of those guys. In his last 15 road games, including game one, he’s been over this line in 11 of the 15 games. Yes, he went under this in game one, but he only attempted 2 shots. I expect more in game two of the Lightning’s power forward.

Jets vs Avalanche Game 2

Was there a better series opener in the Stanley Cup Playoffs than game one between the Jets and Avalanche? I don’t think so. This game was epic, and although he gave up a boatload of goals, Connor Hellebuyck still made 30 saves.

Connor Hellebuyck Over 29.5 Saves

Hellebuyck has made at least 30 saves in 10 of his last 11 games against the Colorado Avalanche, and in a game where Colorado needs a win and will come out firing, we like him to do it again tonight.

Thursday Recap

Last Tuesday’s newsletter went 4-2, let’s see how we closed out the week.

NBA

Adolis Garcia- Over 0.5 Home Runs ✅ He did it, the home run pick of the day smashed one in the top of the third off of Kenta Maeda

Bam Adebayo - Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists ❌ Adebayo only 4 rebounds and 4 assists, big miss for us here.

Brandon Ingram - Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists ✅ Ingram made us sweat a little bit, with 6 boards and 6 assists for 12 total.

Kelly Oubre Jr. - Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists ❌ Oubre played 38 minutes in game one and should’ve gotten it done in that time, but he didn’t. He managed just 10 points, 3 boards, and 1 assist for 14 total. Close, but no cigar.

Georges Niang - Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds ✅ Niang came through! He was the first man off the bench, and he made us sweat it, but Niang finished with 5 points and 3 boards to just barely get the over.

Eric Gordon - Over 6.5 Points + Assists ❌ Gordon and the Suns were destroyed in game one, and he surely didn’t help. He shot 0% from the field and managed just one assist. 1 total point and assist combined.

LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds ❌ LeBron and the Lakers lost game one, and LeBron lost this trend. The data was good, but the GOAT wasn’t good enough.

Ivica Zubas Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds ✅ Zubac had a monster game one, putting up 20 points to cash this, and added 15 boards for safety.

Bobby Portis Over 17.5 Points ❌ We targeted this because Giannis was out, but Portis still didn’t come through. He finished with 15 on 7/15 shooting. Free throws killed us, with Portis managing to get to the line just once for one attempt.

NHL

Jack Eichel Over 0.5 Goals ✅ Eichel closed out the season with the Golden Knights only goal in a 4-1 loss to the Ducks.

Jack Eichel Over 1.5 Points ❌ Eichel scored the only goal of the game for Vegas, so two points weren’t possible here.

Trevor Moor Over 0.5 Points ✅ Trevor Moore should’ve been the player we went after for the goal and 2 points. He assisted on an early goal in the second and then added one of his own later in the period.

Overall

This week we went 50%, 6 for 12. Since we started tracking the newsletter trends last week, we’re now 10-18 (55%). There are 7 plays in this newsletter, so where will be Thursday out of 19? We’ll chat then.