Playoffs, Playoffs, Playoffs…

The NBA playoffs are almost set, with two play-in games tomorrow night to decide the final matchups in the NBA bracket. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are also practically set, with 6 of the 8 matchups set. If the LA Kings beat the Chicago Blackhawks, and the Vegas Golden Knights lose to the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday night, they would flip in the standings. Either way, after Thursday we’ll know everything in the NHL.

In today’s newsletter, we will give you one trend from both play-in games, one trend from each known playoff series, and one trend from the two final NHL games that still have meaning.

Oh, and a homerun matchup we like in today’s small slate.

Now, let’s get into it.

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Homerun Matchup (1 pm Game)

Adolis Garcia Over 0.5 Home Runs vs RHP Kenta Maeda

Adolis Garcia smacked 39 home runs in 148 games in 2023, an average of one home run every 3.7 games. He had 4 home runs in his first 7 games but hasn’t hit a home run in 12 games. So, is he due?

He has a great matchup against righty Kenta Maeda who’s already given up 3 home runs to right-handed pitchers in just 29 plate appearances, and in 8 plate appearances against Maede, Garcia has two hits including one home run.

NBA Play-In and Playoff Trends

Here’s one trend from the two play-in games and the 6 known playoff matchups.

Play-In: Chicago vs Miami

Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 Rebounds and Assists

Jimmy Butler is out for the Heat with a knee sprain, and when he goes down, Bam Adebayo is more involved in moving the ball. He’s been over his rebounds and assists line in 62% of his games with Butler this season, and 9 of his last 10 without Butler.

Play-In: New Orleans vs Sacramento

Brandon Ingram Over 10.5 Rebounds and Assists

Zion Williamson is out for the Pelicans, and this trend takes advantage of that. Without Zion this year, Brandon Ingram has gone over this line in 7 of 9 games and 5 straight games.

Playoffs: Knicks vs 76ers

Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

In the first half of the season, this was an easy under for Kelly Oubre Jr, but in his last 30 games he’s played his way into a major role with the Philadelphia 76ers, and it shows in this trend. He’s been over this line in 77% of his last 30 games.

Playoffs: Cavaliers vs Magic

Georges Niang Jr. Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds

This is going to be a long series, and the Cavs are banged up. No one has been officially declared out, but Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Caris LeVert are all battling injuries. If Georges Niang gets minutes, this line is an easy over. He’s hit this in 78% of his games this season and 24 of his last 30 games (80%).

Playoffs: Suns vs Timberwolves

Eric Gordon Over 6.5 Points + Assists

Eric Gordon leads the Phoenix Suns second unit and on the road this season, he’s cooked this line. Gordon has been over this 78% of the time on the road and in 73% of his last 15 road games (11 of 15).

Playoffs: Nuggets vs Lakers

LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds

The Nuggets are a top-10 rebounding team this season, but I’m basing this off of last season’s playoffs. LeBron went over this line in 7 of 8 playoff games, including both playoff games on the road in Denver.

Playoffs: Clippers vs Mavericks

Ivica Zubac Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds

Riding the hot hand here: Zubac has been over this line in 11 of his last 15 games (73%) and in 59% of his games this season. Plus, the Mavericks are a bottom-10 team in rebounding and in assists allowed.

Playoffs: Bucks vs Pacers

Bobby Portis Over 17.5 Points

This trend is only playable if Giannis doesn’t play. Earlier reports suggested he wouldn't, so if he doesn’t Portis will be leaned on to contribute more in game one. He’s been over this line in 6 of 9 games without Giannis this season, and the Pacers are 27th in the league in points allowed.

Two NHL Games With Significance Remain

Golden Knights vs Ducks

Jack Eichel Over 0.5 Goals or 1.5 Points

Jack Eichel and the Golden Knights are 3-0 versus the Dallas Stars this year and 1-2 versus the Edmonton Oilers. It may be in their interest to lose tonight and hope for an LA win so they can have the Stars in the first round and not the Oilers…but maybe with Eichel’s record vs the Ducks, that’s not going to be in the cards. He has 7 points in his last 4 games including goals in three straight.

Kings vs Blackhawks

Trevor Moore Over 0.5 Points

Highlighting this trend for two reasons: Trevor Moore has points in 4 straight games against the Blackhawks at home and points in 7 of his last 10 home games.

Tuesday Recap:

D’Angelo Russell Over 22.5 Points + Assists: He went over, with 21 points and 6 assists ✅

Brandin Podziemski Over 8.5 Points+Rebounds: He went over, with 5 points and 7 rebounds ✅

Terry Rozier Over 13.5 Points: He didn’t play, so this would’ve been voided.

DeMar DeRozan Over 5.5 Assists: DeMar had 9 assists, easily going over ✅

Alex Ovechkin Over 0.5 Goals: Ovechkin scored in a must-win game for the Capitals, and they clinched a playoff spot in the process ✅

Travis Konecny Over 0.5 Points: Konecny and the Flyers managed just one goal in a must-win game, and Koenecny didn’t play a role in the goal ❌

Patrick Kane Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: Kane and the Red Wings came back again late, but it didn’t matter with the Capitals winning. They came up short in their playoff push and we came up short here, with Kane managing just 2 shots on goal ❌