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Competitive Edge: Week 13 Touchdown Analysis
Grab a coffee, dive into our weekly touchdown breakdown
Who Could Score in the NFL Today?
Every Sunday we hop into your inbox to give you some thoughts from Props.Cash, highlighting spots where touchdowns are likely, and who may score them. This week we found three insights:
The Carolina Panthers' rush defense is truly, historically, bad. Unfortunately, they’re going toe-to-toe with one of the hottest red zone running backs in the NFL and a solid backup.
The Panthers give out 1.54 rushing touchdowns per game, and the Houston Texans passing defense is even worse, allowing 2 passing touchdowns on average per game.
The highest over/under of the week is 51.0 for the Philly/Baltimore game, and with all the weapons in this game, we dug into the data to see who is likely to find the endzone.
Running Backs, The Buccaneers, The Panthers
The Carolina Panthers rushing defense is so, so bad.
The Panthers’ stats vs running backs
They allow 129.45 rushing yards, 1.27 rushing touchdowns, and 27.45 rushing attempts. Teams are running the ball at the highest level with the highest success rate. And right now, Rachaad White is on a red zone tear.
White’s touchdown graph this year
He has touchdowns in 5 straight and has red zone touches in four straight. His co-captain ain’t too shabby either. Bucky Irving has 4 touchdowns in his last 6 games, with touchdowns in back-to-back starts. He may be the better look, too. Irving has 5 red zone touches in his last two games alone.
Against this rushing defense, the likelihood of one of them scoring is pretty high, identifying which one can be a little trickier. But right now, the edge is likely to Irving. As we already stated, he’s outpacing White in red zone touches over the last two games, but he’s also outpacing him in overall touches, too.
White has 22 touches in his last two games.
Irving has 25 touches in his last two games.
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Passing Touchdowns Versus The Texans
Remember this famous quote?
Missing: Texans Secondary!
In the two games without Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr. averaged 47 receiving yards, 3.5 receptions, and 5 targets. He had zero touchdowns.
In the 9 games with Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr. averaged 66.1 receiving yards, 3.9 receptions, and 5.9 targets. He had 5 touchdowns.
Lawrence is back for Jacksonville this week, and it’s a spot where Thomas Jr. can get back on his horse against a Houston secondary that gives up a lot to wide receivers.
Houston’s stats vs Wide Receivers
Gabe Davis, Brenton Strange, and Travis Etienne Jr. are all possibilities as well, but Thomas leads the Jaguars in receiving TDs and has more than those three combined.
Eagles, Ravens In The Late Window
The highest over/under of the week is this Eagles and Ravens tilt. With all the weapons in this game, there’s going to be touchdowns, no doubt about it. But identifying who is the challenge, as we all know.
Saquon Barkley
AJ Brown
Jalen Hurts
Mark Andrews
Isaiah Likely
Derrick Henry
Lamar Jackson
Zay Flowers
Dallas Goedert
Rashod Bateman
Justice Hill
The insane list of weapons in his game could go on, too. DeVonta Smith is questionable, Kenneth Gainwell is behind Barkley on the depth chart, and there are depth options on both sides that can find the endzone. The first thing we need to do is look at the defenses.
The Eagles are a top ten defensive in every metric except completion % and pass attempts, where they’re 11th and 13th.
The Eagles D is quietly been elite this season
The Ravens’ defense is elite, but their passing defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Storylines to watch when it comes to TDs if you’re a narrative-driven reader:
Its the battle of the two best running backs: Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry was held out of the end zone last week for the first time as a Raven, can he get in this week?
Saquon Barkley has six touchdowns in his last 4 games.
Since giving up three touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase in early November, the Ravens have kept wide receivers out of the end zone in back-to-back weeks. But they played Pittsburgh and the LA Chargers. The Eagles’ offense is high-powered compared to those two. Can they build on that momentum, or will the Eagles expose their secondary?
Number one running backs - Kyren Williams last week and Brian Robinson the week before - have scored in back-to-back weeks against Philly. Can Henry keep that going?
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See you Tuesday!