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Data From Deep in the NBA
Finding players with strong data three point in the NBA tonight...
Michael Mohorovich
March 18, 2025
In partnership with
Data From Deep!
Before we highlight 3-point shooters in the NBA, Props.Cash launched our MLB platform this week. We’re dropping new tutorials shortly, to highlight all of our new features, but make sure to check out our MLB offering. The Dodgers play the Cubs in Tokyo early Wednesday morning, and the entire MLB season kicks off on March 27th.
We’re focusing this newsletter on 3-pointers today and on three players in different circumstances. Norman Powell is playing in his second game since returning from injury, Steph Curry is playing in a back-to-back with other strong factors, and Donovan Mitchell is looking to break out of his longest road game drought of the season.
Norman Powell, 1.5 3PTM
Powell returned from a two-week absence and played 22.7 minutes on Sunday, and hit just one of four threes, and his 3PTM line was 1.5 threes. It was only his second game this season, with at least 4 or fewer three attempts, not making two.
Powell with 4 or fewer three attempts
Powell should play a bit more tonight, and with 22 to 26 minutes this season, Powell averages 5.8 threes per game. With 4 to 6 three attempts this season, Powell has hit this 1.5 line in 11 of 15 games (73%).
Powell with 4 to 6 three attempts
And Powell gets a decent (not great) matchup against the Cavaliers, who allow 3.24 3-pointers per game to shooting guards, 13th in the NBA.
Steph Curry, 4.5 3PTM
Steph Curry is so, so good in back-to-backs. He’s averaging 4.8 threes per game, has gone over this line in four straight back-to-backs (and 4 of 5 back-to-backs this season), and has gone over this 4.5 line in both back-to-backs since Jimmy Butler joined the Warriors.
Steph in back-to-backs with Jimmy Butler
And Curry has outstanding head-to-head data against Milwaukee, racking up three straight games with six three’s against the Bucks.
Steph’s head-to-head data against Milwaukee
This season, the Bucks are only allowing 3.06 threes per game to point guards, 8th best in the NBA, but their overall three point difference isn’t great. They rank 22nd in three point difference, as seen on Steph Curry’s shooting chart.
Curry’s shot chart, with the Bucks 3 point defense rank (22nd)
Please note: there’s a chance Steph doesn't play, per underdog.
Kerr: Warriors will consider resting Stephen Curry on Tuesday.
— Underdog NBA (@Underdog__NBA)
5:01 AM • Mar 18, 2025
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Donovan Mitchell, 2.5 3PTM
Donovan Mitchell has averaged 3.4 threes per game on the road this season, going over this 2.5 3’s line in 63% of his road games this season, but lately its been a different story.
Mitchell’s last 5 games on the road
Mitchell has 1 or fewer made threes in 4 of his last 5 road games, and is averaging 7 three attempts per game in those 5 games, and that is where the problem is. He’s attempting 9.1 on average this season, and the difference in his success with more or less attempts is staggering. When Mitchell has 7 or less attempts on the road, he’s gone under this line in every game, averaging just 1.1 made three.
Mitchell on the road, with 7 or fewer three attempts
Mitchell with 8 or more attempts on the road averages 4.3 made threes, going over this 2.5 line in 86% of those games.
Mitchell on the road, with 8 or more three attempts
The Clippers allow 9.19 3 attempts per game to shooting guards, so the door is open for Mitchell to get up more attempts tonight. Overall, LA allow 3.19 made threes per game to shooting guards, another slight advantage to Mitchell.