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Pure curiosity: How many home runs do you think are hit every day in Major League Baseball? It varies, of course, but let’s take a look at the last two weeks.

There are 15 games in Major League Baseball today, and in the last two weeks, on nights with 15 games (including the night where three games were postponed and the night afterward), there was an average of 34.6 home runs per night. Can we use Props.Cash to find three potential home run hitters out of the 30 or so that are likely to go yard tonight? Let’s see!

Har Hit Percentage & Field Conditions

Where to start? Well, let’s first look at the starting pitchers with the highest hard-hit percentages amongst the starters tonight.

• Will Warren, Yankees: 46.0%

• Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks: 46.5%

• Seth Lugo, Royals: 46.8%

• Jake Irvin, Nationals: 47.9%

• Jose Soriano, Angels: 48.0%

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 48.9%

Let’s cross-reference those pitchers with the best hitting conditions in today’s slate.

• Will Warren, Yankee Stadium: The wind will blow out to center field at 7 to 8 miles per hour for most of the game. The temperatures start in the low 90s and drop to the mid-80s.

• Merrill Kelly, Petco Park: Kelly is on the road in San Diego, where the wind will blow out to right field at 7 to 8 degrees. The temperatures are in the high to mid-80s.

• Seth Lugo, Kauffman Stadium: The wind is blowing in at 2 miles per hour, with temperatures ranging from 86 to 81 degrees Fahrenheit throughout the game.

• Jake Irvin, Busch Stadium: The wind is blowing in at 2 to 4 miles per hour, with temperatures in the low 80s.

• Jose Soriano, Angel Stadium: Wind is blowing out at 4 to 3 miles per hour, with temperatures in the high to mid 70s.

• Clayton Kershaw, American Family Field: Wind is blowing out between 6 and 4 miles per hour, with temperatures between the low 80s and high 70s.

And the last cross-reference we’ll make: which of these ballparks has had the most home runs this season?

1. Yankee Stadium, 114.

2. Angel Stadium, 109.

3. American Family Field, 80.

4. Busch Stadium, 78.

5. Petco Park, 77.

6. Kauffman Stadium, 64.

With all this data, let’s identify the three pitchers we’re going to target from that list:

• Will Warren: he has the lowest hard-hit percentage of our 6 pitchers, and the conditions and season history at Yankee Stadium are encouraging enough. And the hard-hit percentage is still pretty high. Added data: Warren has an HR per 9 of 1.27 at home vs lefties.

• Jose Soriano: he has the second-highest hard-hit percentage, and Angel Stadium has the second-highest number of home runs on our list. The wind is at least blowing out, albeit lightly, too. Added data: Soriano has an HR per 9 of 1.31 at home vs lefties.

• Jake Irvin: Irvin has the third-highest hard-hit percentage, and the data at the ballpark is at least positive for HR’s. Added data: Irvin has an HR per 9 of 2.45 on the road vs righties this season.

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One Batter for Each Pitcher

Cal Raleigh vs Will Warren

Raleigh is the big bat on the Mariners this season, and being a switch hitter helps with that HR per 9 vs lefties with Warren. He has a .323 ISO vs righties, with 21 home runs in 284 plate appearances, and let's hope he throws Raleigh a fastball, because that’s what Raleigh devours, with a 23.3 barrel percentage.

As for home run averages, Raleigh has averaged a HR every 3.14 games, and he hasn’t homered in back-to-back games (2 HR’s on July 4th).

Wyatt Langford vs Jose Soriano

Langford and Soriano have not battled before, but Langford’s high barrel percentage against the breaking ball (10%), combined with Soriano’s high barrel percentage and usage rate of his breaking ball (10.8% barrel, 34.5% usage), is encouraging.

As for home run averages, Langford has averaged a HR every 5.38 games this season, and hasn’t homered in 12 games.

Wilson Contreras vs Jose Soriano

For Irvin, our focus is righties, and Contreras has the highest ISO vs right-handed hitters on the Cardinals (.172). He’s faced Irvin 3 times before and has one hit - a home run on July 27th, 2024. Contreras has 4 of his 11 home runs against the breaking ball, and Irvin has given up 10 of his 20 home runs with his breaking ball this season.

Contreras has averaged a HR every 7.72 games this season and hasn’t homered in 6 games.

Batter vs Pitcher Matchup Sheet, July 8th

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups — July 8th Edition 🔥

⚾ Tommy Pham: .500 avg in 12 PA’s vs Lugo 💣
⚾ Vlad Guerrero Jr.: .357 avg in 17 PA’s vs Civale w/ 2 HR 💥
⚾ Steven Kwan: 8 HRR in last 2, hitting .312 vs righties 🔥
⚾ Corey Seager: .800 avg in 7 PA’s vs Soriano 😮‍💨

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See you Thursday!