Showing Up Against Certain Opponents

For whatever reason, some players love playing certain teams. That is what we focused on throughout our research this morning. We’ve identified a few players who have great data against their opponent tonight, and dove a little deeper to figure out if their recent play, their opponent’s play this season versus their position, and any other factors involved, could help us identify whether or not they’re going to continue their solid head-to-head performances tonight. These are the players, and their props, that we’re focusing on:

• De’Aaron Fox, points

• Normal Powell, assists

• Jaylen Brown, rebounds

Let’s go!

Fox Against The Nuggets

De’Aaron Fox has had solid numbers against Denver in his career. He has averaged 25.3 points per game over his last 11 regular-season games against them.

But he has been pretty bad, compared to his standard, over his last 4 games.

Why has he barely been scoring? Because he’s not shooting nearly enough. He averaged 19.7 shots per game this season, and over his last 5, he’s averaged 15.8. Uncharacteristically low.

Can he snap out of that tonight? Well, he’ll need to shoot more and this Nuggets team allows 20.83 field goal attempts per game to point guards, 25th in the NBA, so the opportunities to shoot should be there. They also allow 24.91 points to point guards, 19th in the NBA. His points line is 23.5, this is how he splits against that line:

• Over in 56% of his away games, averaging 24.1.

• Over in 50% of his last 10 away games, averaging 23.4

• Over in 40% of his last 5 away games, averaging 23.0

• Over in 43% of back-to-backs this season, averaging 25.0

• Over in 50% of his back-to-backs on the road this season, averaging 22.3

If Fox shoots more and breaks out of this lack-of-shooting streak he finds himself in, the points should come.

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Powell Against The Wizards

Normal Powell has a much smaller sample size against the Wizards than Fox did against the Nuggets, but he’s still hit this assist line in both games.

Powell has been relatively average at moving the ball compared to his usual standard over his last 5 games, averaging 1.8 assists and going over his assist line in 3 of 5 games.

Can he make it three in a row versus Washington tonight? Well, the Clippers should be scoring a ton tonight. The Wizards are dreadful defensively, allowing 122.5 points per game, the most in the NBA. And 28.48 assists per game, third-most in the NBA. Shooting guards are right there too, averaging 5.41 assists per game against Washington, also third most in the NBA.

Powell’s assist line is 1.5 tonight, and this is how he splits against that line this season:

• Over in 66% of his games this season, averaging 2.2 APG

• Over in 63% of his home games this season, averaging 2.3 APG

• Over in 40% of his last 10 home games, averaging 1.9

• Over in 40% of his last 5 home games, averaging 1.4

• Over in 50% of his games on two days rest, averaging 1.8

Brown Against The Lakers

Jaylen Brown has averaged 9.3 rebounds per game over his last 4 outings versus the Lakers, going over his rebound line of 5.5 in 3 of the 4 games.

Brown has been below this number in back-to-back games coming into this one, but he is still averaging 6 rebounds per game over his last five games.

And he’s been consistent, averaging 6 rebounds per game over his last 10.

Can he continue his strong rebounding play against the Lakers? The Lakers are averaging 8.05 rebounds per game to small forwards, 26th in the NBA.

His rebound line is 5.5, and this is how he’s split against that line this season:

• Over this line in 57% of his games this year, averaging 5.9 rebounds per game.

• Over this line in 59% of his road games, averaging 6.4 rebounds per game.

• Over this line in 75% of his back-to-backs this season, averaging 8.0 RPG.

• Over this line in his only back-to-back this season on the road, finishing with 12 rebounds.

Recap

If De’Aaron Fox can shoot more, which he should be able to against this Nuggets team, we should see improvement tonight.

Powell gets a great matchup against Washington, who gives up a lot of assists to every position, especially shooting guards. A blowout is the only worry here.

Brown has had back-to-back lackluster rebounding efforts and gets a great matchup against the Lakers to get back on track.

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See you Sunday morning for our touchdown analysis!