Eight Games, Eight Shooters

There are 8 games in the NBA tonight. Rosters are scrambled because of the very active trade deadline, guys are waiting to find out if they’re on the move, the Bucks don’t appear to be trading Giannis, and through all of that noise, we’re here to deliver the goods.

The ‘goods’ are 8 NBA three-point trends, one for each game. As per usual, you’ll find an NHL cheat sheet in the middle of the newsletter for the last night of NHL hockey before the Olympic break.

Now, let’s get into it.

NBA Three’s

WAS @ DET: Kyshawn George, 1.5 3PTM

Edge: 1.9 3PTM

George is averaging 2.1 makes per game this season, with a hit rate of 65% against this line. He’s gone under this line in back-to-back games, with two total attempts - one in each game - even though he’s averaging 5.7 attempts per game this season. In those two games, he played just 19 & 26 minutes, even though he’s averaging 30.1 this season. With the massive trade for the Wizards yesterday, and the minutes available for George, Edge is depending on an increased shooting volume and minutes after back-to-back quiet games.

In games this season, playing 25 or more minutes and attempting 3 or more threes, which would be marginal increases for George compared to his last 2 games, he’s averaging 2.5 makes with a 76% hit rate.

George playing 30 or more minutes and attempting 3 or more threes

We have to note the matchup is tough; the Piston rank3rd in 3-point defense against opposing shooting guards, and George went 1/5 from three against the Pistons in November.

BKN @ ORL: Jalen Suggs, 1.5 3PTM

Edge: 1.8 3PTM

Suggs is averaging 1.9 makes from three this season, with a 55% hit rate against this line. Good news for him, this game is at home, where he’s rocking an 87% hit rate with a 2.5 average.

Suggs at home this season

Suggs scores 22.9% of his points from the Spot Up play type, where his opponent tonight, Brooklyn, struggles. They rank 28th in defending that play type, and against the bottom 5 defensive teams, Suggs is averaging 2.0 makes over three games, with a 67% hit rate.

UTA @ ATL: Ace Bailey, 1.5 3PTM

Edge: 1.8 3PTM

Bailey is only averaging 1.5 makes with a 50% hit rate this season, but more importantly, he’s averaging 2.0 makes with an 80% hit rate over his last 10 games, and 2.2 makes with an 80% hit rate over his last 5 games.

Bailey’s L5 Games

Bailey is facing Atlanta, who rank 22nd in 3-point defense against opposing small forwards, and Ace took advantage of the matchup earlier this season with 4 threes.

CHI @ TOR: RJ Barrett, 1.5 3PTM

Edge: 1.7 3PTM

Barrett has drastic home and away splits, and the good thing for this trend is that this game is at home, where the drastic leans positive for RJ. Overall, this season, he’s averaging 1.7 makes with a 66% hit rate against this line. On the road this season, that drops to 1.5 average made threes, with a 60% hit rate. At home, we get the bump - 2.0 average with a 71% hit rate.

RJ at home this season

He’s also 2 for 2 this season in back-to-backs, with a 2.0 average.

NHL Cheat Sheets

Enjoy the Olympic tournament!

CHA @ HOU: Brandon Miller, 2.5 3PTM

Edge: 2.8 3PTM

Miller has laced it from three in his last 5 games; that has to be a major influence for Edge here. He has an 80% hit rate with a 3.6 made threes average, and a 3.5 made threes average with a 70% hit rate over his L10.

Millers L10 Games

As good as he’s been from three in his last 10 and 5, I feel it necessary to point out that he’s playing Houston, who rank 9th in 3-point defense against opposing small forwards. And they rank top 5 in spot-up defense, and against other top 5 spot up defending teams, Miller has averaged 1.5 made threes with a 0% hit rate in 4 games. Tread carefully in this spot - he’s 0 for 1 against the Rockets this season, with just 1 made three, but he only had 2 attempts. This season, he’s attempting 8.0 per game, so that one game was an attempt outlier.

And for what it’s worth:

  • With 0-3 attempts (2 games): overaging 0.5 makes with a 0% hit rate

  • With 4-7 attempts (13 games): averaging 2.0 makes with a 25% hit rate

  • With 8-10 attempts (14 games): averaging 3.8 makes with a 71% hit rate

  • With 11+ attempts (6 games): averaging 3.7 makes with an 83% hit rate

SAS @ DAL: Devin Vassell, 1.5 3PTM

Edge: 2.5 makes

Vassell is averaging 2.5 makes this season with a 68% hit rate, 2.6 makes on the road this season with a 60% hit rate, 1.6 makes over his L5 with a 60% hit rate & 1.7 makes with a 60% hit rate over his L10. But the most important data set here is his numbers in back-to-backs.

Vassell in back-to-backs this season

Can he stay perfect tonight?!

GSW @ PHX: Connor Gillespie, 2.5 3PTM

Edge: 3.1

Before we get into any Gillespie details, check out his last 10 games.

Gillespie’s last 10 games

C’mon!!! He’s been lacing it from three, averaging 4.1 makes with a 90% hit rate. He’s going up against a Warriors team that ranks 23rd in 2-point defense against opposing point guards, with 59% of opposing PGs clearing their lines against Golden State in their L10. He is under against them in both games this season with 2 & 1 made threes across 13 attempts, but we’ll end it on a positive note: he’s hitting at a 78% clip this season with a 3.6 made threes average, and Booker remains out tonight.

PHI @ LAL: VJ Edgecombe, 1.5 3PTM

Edge: 1.9 3PTM

Edgecombe has cleared this line in 63% of his games this season, averaging 2.1 makes. On the road, he’s been a weapon, with a 76% clear rate and a 2.5 made threes average. And that comes down to his attempts:

  • Averaging 5.7 attempts per game this season

  • Averaging 5.0 attempts at home this season

  • Averaging 6.7 attempts on the road this season

And when he has 6 attempts or more, an above-average game this season overall, but a below-average road game, he’s averaging 2.8 makes this season with a 78% hit rate, and 3.3 makes on the road with a 93% hit rate on the road.

Edgecome on the road with 6 or more attempts from three

He went 2 for 3 against the Lakers earlier this season, too (at home). Our last note: against Western Conference teams on the road, he has an 80% hit rate this season, averaging 2.6 made threes.

How many of the 8 come through?!

See you Sunday morning for our Super Bowl newsletter!

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