Fascinating Data for Game 2 of the Warriors and Timberwolves

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Warriors, Timberwolves Game 2

With Steph Curry ruled out for tonight’s second game between the Warriors and Timberwolves, there’s a great opportunity to dive into data from games this season where Curry didn’t play. However, an important filter we’re using is to only include games where Curry was out and Butler was active. Since the team’s dynamics have shifted significantly since Butler joined the roster, isolating games under these two conditions gives us a much more relevant and accurate read on how the current version of the Warriors performs without Curry.

Brandin Podziemski is averaging 11.4 points per game this season and had just 3 points in the first game of the series. But the splits tell a different story when Steph Curry is out and Jimmy Butler is active — a key scenario considering how much the team's structure shifts without Curry on the floor.

Podziemski’s points in games without Curry, and with Butler



Podziemski is knocking down 1.8 threes per game this season overall, but that number jumps to 3.7 threes made in games where Curry is out and Butler is playing — a massive bump.

Podziemski’s 3PTM in games without Curry, and with Butler

He’s also averaging 1.9 threes per game in the postseason but has hit 2+ threes in just 4 of 9 playoff games so far. With Curry sidelined, though, there’s a strong case for increased opportunity.

Podziemski has averaged 9.8 field goal attempts per game this season, and that rises to 13.3 attempts when Curry is out and Butler is in. In games this season where he’s attempted 13+ shots, he’s averaged 3.5 made threes and 19.9 points per game — showing what kind of upside he has in a larger role.

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CAR/WSH Game 2: Alex Ovechkin, 3.5 Shots on Goal

Alex Ovechkin was held to just one shot on goal in Game 1 — a rare occurrence this season. It was only the 7th time all year he’s had one or fewer shots in a game.

What’s interesting? In the 6 previous instances, Ovechkin responded with 4 or more shots on goal in the next game five times.

He only had one shot attempt in game 1, too. A far cry from his 7.7 shot attempt average this season. If he can even just get 5 shot attempts tonight, nearly 3 shy of his season average, he has a good chance of bouncing back considering he averages 3.9 shots on goal per game when attempting 5 or more.

Ovechkin with 5 shot attempts or more

EDM/VGK Game 2: Tomas Hertl, Point

Hertl hasn’t gone three games at home without a point since early January. He was held off the scoresheet in game one and in game 6 against Minnesota, so he’ll need a point to avoid breaking that streak tonight.

Hertl’s points at home this season

EDM/VGK Game 2: Connor McDavid, Goal

McDavid doesn’t have a goal in 4 straight games, and in game one he had 4 shots on goal and 9 shot attempts. He scored in 15 of 31 games this season with 4 or more shots on goal, a 48% hit rate. That hit rate wouldn’t be something worth highlighting usually, but in the anytime goal market, 48% is pretty good.

McDavid’s goals with 4 or more shots on goal

MLB Head-to-Head Matchups

Head-to-head matchups for May 8th in Major League Baseball

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See you Tuesday!