
Small NBA Slate….from 3!
It’s a small slate in the NBA, with just three games on the final night before the All-Star Break. We’re going to highlight one to two 3-point made trends for each game, but before we do, there was some breaking news about the All-Star festivities: De’Aaron Fox is an All-Star, Giannis Antetokounmpo is out.
The three games on the slate include Giannis’ Bucks, but of course, he isn’t in the lineup. This is the slate:
Milwaukee at Oklahoma City, 7:30 PM ET
Portland at Utah, 9:00 PM ET
Dallas at the LA Lakers, 10:00 PM ET
Now, let’s get into it.
NBA 3PTM Trends
MIL at OKC: Cam Thomas, 1.5 3PTM
Ride the hot hand? Thomas played his second game as a Milwaukee Buck last night. He played 13 minutes in his debut two games ago, but it was last night that he really got a big opportunity. Thomas played 25 minutes off the bench and attempted six threes.
With the Nets this season, between injuries and Brooklyn trying to find their identity, his role was up and down. But if we isolate all games this season where Thomas played 25 or more minutes, he’s done well against this line.

Thomas, when playing 25+ minutes
As you can see, in those 7 games, he’s averaged 2.9 made threes and has a 71% hit rate.
This season, across all games, Thomas averaged 4.8 threes. But as we said, he had 6 attempts in that game lastnight. If we isolate his games this season with even just 5 attempts or more, the data is strong.
In those games, of which we get a much larger sample size (14 games), he’s averaged 2.6 made threes with a 79% hit rate.

Thomas in games with 5 or more attempts from three this season
He could get even more minutes, too, with Kyle Kuzma now on the injury report after he played last night.
Can Thomas hit two threes?
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POR at UTA: Ace Bailey, 1.5 3PTM
Ace Bailey is getting more comfortable, and the league is noticing. He was just announced as a replacement for the Rising Star Challenge this weekend.
And from three lately, he’s found his groove. Even though he’s averaged 4.4 attempts from three this season, in his last 10 games, that has ticked up to 5.3 average. Last night against Sacramento, he had three threes on 6 attempts. If we isolate his games this season with 5 or more attempts from three, the data is strong.

Bailey in games with 5 or more attempts from three this season
And then there’s the injury news; the Jazz are without several key players.
And with that, Bailey should see big minutes. He’s played 28 or more minutes in 9 of his last 10, 30 or more minutes in 6 of his last 8 games, and 40 or more minutes in 3 of those games. So, let’s isolate Bailey’s games with 28 or more minutes this season and see what we get:

Bailey, when playing 28+ minutes
Turns out, not bad.
He’s also been dynamite in back-to-backs this season, averaging 2.4 made threes with a 78% hit rate. Can Bailey hit 2 3PTM?
DAL @ LAL: Austin Reaves, 2.5 3PTM
We’re rocking with three pieces of data here:
Reaves versus the top 5 defenses in the league
Reaves H2H hit rate and volume against the Mavs
Typing that volume into his season performances
Reaves has three games against top-five 3-point defenses this season, and in those games, he has a 67% hit rate, averaging 3.7 made threes (2, 6, 3). That game with 6 made threes was against Dallas. And in all three of those games, he has 8 attempts or more.

Reaves versus the top 5 defenses this season
Against these leaky defenses, Reaves has gotten his looks and turned that into really good volume. He’s averaged 7 attempts from three per game this season, but let’s isolate his games with 8 attempts or more.

Reaves in games with 8 or more attempts from three this season
Against another bad 3-point defense, can Reaves get more open looks and convert? Let’s hope for good volume.