Finding Thursday Night Football Value in the Route Running Tree

Plus Partner Trends

Author

Michael Mohorovich
October 17, 2024

In partnership with

Before we get into the route running tree, this is how NFL betting trends have shaped up from weeks 4 to 6.

How are NFL Betting Trends Shaping Up?

Note: The numbers are listed as such in each week's column (Players who qualified under that line parameter and overs-under).

Position and Line

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

What We Can Take Away

QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher

21 (11-10)

47% went under in week four

21 (12-9)

42% went under in week five

20 (11-8)

43% went under in week six

Have we found the QB sweet spot? Back-to-back weeks with no change.

RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher

22 (12-10)

45% went under in week four

26 (17-9)

34% went under in week five

25 (13-12)

48% went under in week six

Running backs had their worst week since week 3.

WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

22 (14-8)

36% went under in week four

24 (16-8)

33% went under in week five

23 (11-12)

52% went under

Running backs weren’t the only player group with a big swing from weeks five to six.

TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher

9 (5-4)

44% went under in week four

12 (9-3)

25% went under in week five

14 (8-6)

42% went under in week six

Tight ends just continue to not show any pattern. It has to be a matchup play at this point.

Utilizing the Route Running Tree for TNF

In our NFL best bets YouTube video this week with @KyleJustBets, he highlighted Javonte Williams using our Route Running Tree, and it inspired us to use this newsletter to see if we could find trends for Thursday Night Football using the tool. Let’s go!

Quarterbacks Checking Down

Kyle’s play was highlighting Javonte Williams receiving yards because of how often the Saints force quarterbacks to check down, and how often Bo Nix checks down. We saw a similar trend on the other sideline with Alvin Kamara.

Alvin Kamara Receptions

Kamara’s receptions line is 4.5, which he’s been over in three straight games, including last week with Spencer Rattler under center, who will start again tonight.

Kamara’s receptions and targets this season

But even more importantly, he’s been targetted 8 or more times in all three weeks (the grey bars), so he should see the volume to go over this line. Also, he sees most of his targets and completions when running screen and flat routes, areas where the Broncos give up high completions percentages.

Kamara’s targets this season by route

The Broncos defense completion percentages

The Broncos also lead the NFL in blitz % at 41.8, and Kamara’s completions percentage is 100% on 3 targets between flat and screen routes this season.

Kamara’s targets on blitz’s

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Points Trends from the NHL

Filip Forsberg Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Thomas Chabot Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Walks

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