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14 Games, 14 Thoughts

Now that the Thursday nighter and Friday International game are behind us, week one is rolling. It’s time for the big one - 14 games today and tomorrow, starting with 8 games in the 1 PM window, 4 games in the 4 pm window, the Bills & Ravens on Sunday Night Football, and then Sam Darnold & Caleb Williams battle it out on Monday Night Football.

We’re going to analyze one prop for each game, found via projections, head-to-head data, or simply by chance!

Let’s go!

Editor’s Note: This newsletter was written on Friday, September 5th, so some betting lines may have moved since the final edit.

1 PM Games

TB vs ATL - Baker Mayfield, 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Baker owned Atlanta last season - in two games against the Falcons last season, Mayfield racked up 6 passing touchdowns, 3 on the road and 3 at home.

Against Atlanta last season, 65% of the quarterbacks that they played went over this passing touchdown number. Baker himself eclipsed this line in 13 of 18 games (72% hit rate) and 5 of 8 road games (63% hit rate).

PIT vs NYJ - Breece Hall, 44.5 Rush Yards

Aaron Rodgers and Robert Salah/Jeff Ulbrich are gone, Justin Fields and Aaron Glenn have arrived. With the men at the helm, how Hall and Braelon Allen will be deployed is in question. Regardless, 44.5 yards is a low line for a running back that averaged 54.8 yards per game and went over this line in 75% of his games last season.

Even better, he averaged 61.5 yards per game at home and eclipsed this line in 88% of his home games last season.

MIA vs IND - Jonathan Taylor, 17.5 Rushing Attempts

Former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is the new head coach in Indianapolis, and last season in Philly, he had Saquon Barkley averaging 21.5 rushing attempts per game. Taylor isn’t Barkley, but he’s still got an elite first step. Last season under a different regime, he averaged 21.6 rushing attempts per game.

As you can see above, he averaged an even better 22.4 at home last season.

CAR vs JAC - Chuba Hubbard, 1.5 Receptions

Hubbad consistently sailed over this line, averaging 2.9 receptions last season with 4 or more receptions 9 times. He had at least 2 receptions in 73% of his games last season and 67% of his road games.

54% of running backs to face Jacksonville went over their reception line last season, too.

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NYG vs WAS - Noah Brown, 20.5 Receiving Yards

Brown is now the third man in the pecking order for the Commanders, behind Terry McLaurin and newly acquired Deebo Samuel, but last season, he absolutely destroyed this line before he went down with a Kidney injury in December.

He averaged 41.2 yards per game last season, went over this 20.5 line 82% of the time, and an even better 46.0 yards at home, with an 83% hit rate.

ARI vs NO - Kyler Murray, 25.5 Rushing Yards

Murray only had 26 or more yards in 47% of his games last season, but he had a lot more success on the road than he did at home. At home, he averaged just 27.4 yards per game, clearing this line 33% of the time. On the road? Different story.

As you can see, he averaged 40.6 rushing yards, clearing this line in 63% of his games.

CIN vs CLE - Chase Brown, 15.5 Longest Rush

To find the details and analysis on this play, check out our best bets video with KyleJustBets on YouTube:

LV vs NE - Drake Maye, 29.5 Rushing Yards

Fun fact: Drake Maye would’ve finished third in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks across a 17-game pace. He only played 11 games, and still finished 9th amongst quarterbacks. When it comes to this 29.5 rushing line, Maye has some solid data.

The hit rate isn’t overly attractive, but he averaged 32.4 yards per game in his rookie season.

4 PM Games

SF vs SEA - George Kittle, 62.5 Receiving Yards

To find the details and analysis on this play, check out our best bets video with KyleJustBets on YouTube:

Ten vs DEN - Wil Lutz, 2.5 Kicking PAT

There are a couple of reasons that this prop jumped off the dashboard:

• The Titans project to be, well, not so good. They had the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL last season, and although they’re expected to improve, it’s not expected to be by a lot.

• The Broncos have an elite offensive line, which should negate the Titans’ pass rush.

• Wil Lutz crushed this line last season, especially at home.

Lutz averaged 3.5 PATs last season at home, clearing this line in 75% of his home games.

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DET vs GB - Jordan Love, 0.5 Interceptions

Over the past two seasons, Jordan Love has shown a clear split in his interceptions — high in the first half of the year, much lower in the second.

As the season goes on, he just gets better. And against the Lions, dating back two seasons, he threw at least one pick in the first matchup of both of those seasons.

HOU vs LA - Matthew Stafford, 0.5 Interceptions

Similar to Love, Stafford has an early-season interception problem. It’s not as bad as Love’s, but it’s not far off.

Last season, he opened up the season throwing a pick in 4 of his first 5 home starts, too.

Houston ranked second in the NFL in interceptions, too.

Sunday Night Football

BAL vs BUF - Tyler Bass, 6.5 Kicking Points

To find the details and analysis on this play, check out our best bets video with KyleJustBets on YouTube:

Monday Night Football

MIN vs CHI - ?!?!?!

This one we’re going to save for our Instagram! Check it out by clicking anywhere in this sentence; we’ll be posting it on Monday afternoon.

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See you Tuesday!