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Points, Points, Points!

There are 5 NBA games tonight, and the NBA projection model has a top player by projected difference (the difference between their points line and our projection). We’re going to highlight each player and give the supporting data behind why the model likes what it likes! All of the projections are for the player’s points line, we’re not focusing on any other props in today’s newsletter.

Here are the five players:

• Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards

• Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks

• Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves

• Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies

• Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers

Bub Carrington

Points Line: 7.5
Projected Difference: 4.01
Projected Total: 11.52

This is how Bub Carrington’s averages break down this season:

• 8.8 points this season.

• 7.2 points in his last 5 games.

• 7.8 points in his last 10 games.

• 9.0 points in his last 20 games.

• 8.4 points in his last 30 games.

Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 28.4 minutes per game, and when Carrington plays 28 or more minutes this season he’s averaging 10.1 points per game going over his 7.5 points line in 67% of those games (20 of 30).

On the other end of the court, the Lakers allow 24.24 points per game to point guards (10th best in the NBA), with 50% of point guards covering their points line in their last 10 games, and 50% going over Carrington’s 7.5 points line.

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Dyson Daniels

Points Line: 13.5
Projected Difference: 1.22
Projected Total: 14.72

This is how Dyson Daniel's averages break down this season:

• 13.5 points per game this season.

• 15.4 points in his last 5 games.

• 15.6 points in his last 10 games.

• 13.6 points in his last 20 games.

• 12.9 points in his last 30 games.

The two biggest factors for Daniels are his recent play, averaging a full 2 points more per game in his last 5 than he has this season.

And then his matchup; the Cavs allow 26.3 points per game this season to point guards, 2nd most per game in the NBA. Over their last 10 games, point guards are covering their point line 60% of the time and 6 of the last 7 have gone over Daniel’s point line of 13.5.

Jaden McDaniels

Points Line: 11.5
Projected Difference: 2.44
Projected Total: 13.94

This is how Jaden McDaniels averages break down this season:

• 10.6 points this season.

• 15.0 points in his last 5 games.

• 14.1 points in his last 10 games.

• 11.2 points in his last 20 games.

• 10.5 points in his last 30 games.

Just like Daniels, McDaniels is hot right now as you can see from his last 5, and gets a great matchup.

Power forwards have covered their points line in 64% of games over their last 10, and 9 of 14 power forwards have gone over McDaniels point line for tonight. As you’ll see in the image below, 6 of the last 8 power forwards to face Utah have scored 24 or more points.

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Santi Aldama

Points Line: 8.5
Projected Difference: 3.42
Projected Total: 11.92

This is how Santi Aldama's averages break down this season:

• 12.7 points this season.

• 12.6 points in his last 5 games.

• 10.6 points in his last 10 games.

• 12.8 points in his last 20 games.

• 12.7 points in his last 30 games.

In those breakdowns, there is one thing missing: Aldama’s performance against Houston earlier this season on home court.

Aldama had 12 points on January 9th against Houston in Memphis, and that’s an indicator of his hit line against this line this season. As we said, he’s averaged 12.7 points and has gone over this 8.5 in 77% of his games.

Deni Avdija

Points Line: 16.5
Projected Difference: 3.90
Projected Total: 20.4

This is how Deni Avdija's averages break down this season:

• 14.9 points this season.

• 21.0 points in his last 5 games.

• 18.9 points in his last 10 games.

• 18.7 points in his last 20 games.

• 17.4 points in his last 30 games.

It’ll be a tug-of-war for Deni tonight - his recent play is indicative of why the model likes him tonight. He’s coming off back-to-back games with 28 or more points, both season highs. He’s getting more minutes, averaging 34.9 minutes per game over his last 5 and 33.7 minutes per game over his last 10. His season average is 29.0.

The tug is his recent play, the war is his matchup - the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC give up the least points per game this season to small forwards, just 18.22. That has been a little leaky lately, with small forwards averaging 20.54 points per game over their last 5.

The model clearly likes Deni’s recent play, but can he overcome a stout defense? We’ll see!

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