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Four Games, Four Thoughts

It’s a small slate in the NBA tonight with just four games, but just for you, we dug into every filter, crevice, and hidden gem on Props.Cash to find one stat that stood out for each game.

• TOR/PHI: Embiid’s rebounding history against the Raptors in Philadelphia, and the absence of any rim protection for Toronto.

• NYK/IND: Myles Turner from three?

• DET/CHI: The best matchup in the league for Cade Cunningham, in one particular category.

• MEM/PHX: Ja Morant head-to-head against Phoenix, and his road play.

Embiid, Rebounding

Joel Embiid has barely played this season, and he hasn’t quite been the same rebounder that he has been in years past, averaging just 8.2 boards. But over his last 5 games, he’s started to come on a bit, averaging 11.2.

With that said his head-to-head history against Toronto, specifically at home, caught our eye.

And if he plays - yes, he’s of course questionable because of his knee, even though he’s played the 76ers’ last three games - he’ll have minimal opposition down low to stop him. Poeltl is out for a couple of weeks for Toronto, and they just traded Kelly Olynk at the deadline. Jonathan Mogbo has been getting the starts at center for Toronto since, and centers have taken advantage.

They’ve given up massive games to Zach Edey and KAT lately, the two combining for 35 rebounds. Alperen Sengun is a bit misleading here, he was hurt and only played three minutes.

The prop: Joel Embiid, 9.5 Rebounds
Where does the data lean: Over
Notes: He’s questionable.

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Myles Turner, From Three?!

Myles Turner’s three-point line is 1.5 tonight, a line he’s covered in 61% of his games this season, and 12 of 20 home games.

Turner also gets a solid matchup - the Knicks allow 1.43 threes per game to centers, 6th most in the NBA, and 1.4 threes on the road, 8th most in the NBA.

Turner throws up threes at enough of a volume for his 61% hit rate to make sense and the Knicks are 14th in points allowed from beyond the arc, not including the corners. Turner on the other hand scores 40% of his points from that area on the court.

It is worth noting that Turner hasn’t played since February 6th, and is questionable to make his return tonight.

The Prop: Myles Turner, 1.5 Threes
Where does the data lean: Over
Notes: He’s questionable.

Rebounds, Assists, Cade Cunningham

The Chicago Bulls’ tendency to give up rebounds and assists to point guards is impressively bad, from the Bulls' point of view. From Cade Cunningham’s point of view, it’s awesome. Before we get into his head-to-head data against Chicago, this is how the Bulls break down against opposing point guards.

• They give up 17.17 combined rebounds and assists to point guards, most in the NBA.

• They give up 16.29 combined rebounds and assists at home, 2nd most in the NBA.

And opposing point guards are clearing their R+A line 59% of the time over the Bull’s last 10 games, 64% of the time over their last 20 games, and 61% of the time this season.

Cade has taken advantage of this matchup this season, with 34 combined rebounds and assists in two games versus Chicago this season, going over in both games.

He’s also cleared this line in 54% of his games this season.

The Prop: Cade Cunningham, 15.5 Rebounds and Assists
Where does the data lean: Over
Notes: Cunningham is averaging 17.2 R&A over his last 5 games.

Ja Morant Head-to-Head, Ja Morant on the Road…

Here are some fun facts about Ja Morant this season:

1. He’s averaging 20.5 points per game this season.

2. His prop line tonight is 21.5, a line he’s covered in 48% of his games this season.

Now, here are some more fun facts about Ja Morant, for both this season and his career:

1. He’s on the road tonight in Phoenix and has averaged 22.7 points per game on the road, compared to 18.9 at home. At home, he’s covered this line just 39% of the time, compared to 62% on the road.

2. He loves playing Phoenix, and we mean LOVES. Over his last 6 games against the Suns, Morant is averaging nearly 27 points per game, quite the change from his season average.

When you combine his efforts on the road, with his past efforts against Phoenix, and Phoenix’s defense of point guards, Ja stands out tonight. The Suns allow 25.42 points to point guards (4th most in the NBA) and 31.25 points to point guards over their last 5 games (3rd most in the NBA).

The last two marquee point guards to face Phoenix: Jamal Murray (30 points) and SGA (50 points). Can Ja score 22 tonight?

The Prop: Ja Morant, 21.5 Points
Where does the data lean: Over
Notes: Ja’s last three games - 25, 26 and 16 points.

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See you Thursday!