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14 games.

14 trends.

One trend for each game.

Let’s do it.

But first…

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MLB Trends

Can we go 14 for 14? It’s not likely, but we will try! 15 trends below.

6:35 PM: Jays - Orioles

Gunnar Henderson is in the longest home run drought of his season, and we’re not suggesting he breaks that in this spot, but the matchup is enticing enough that we like his hits, runs, and RBIs line Tuesday.

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Henderson gets Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt, who’s allowed lefties to hit him to the tune of a .278 average. Henderson also has good historical data versus Bassit, albeit in a small sample size.

And although Henderson hasn’t homered since July 14th, he has been over this hits, runs, and RBIs line in back-to-back games and has hits in 5 straight.

6:35 PM: Yankees - Phillies

Death, taxes, and J.T. Realmuto hitting singles against Gerrit Cole.

J.T Realmuto Over 0.5 Singles

Realmuto has a .550 lifetime average against Cole, and 10 of his 11 hits are singles. The other? A home run. It’s a wild line.

Cole has also allowed 5 or more runs in 5 of his 7 starts since returning from injury, so Realmuto should have the opportunity to find his way on base today.

6:40 PM: Marlins - Rays

Jeffrey Springs returns to the Rays rotation, having last played April 13th, 2023 before rupturing his UCL and needing Tommy John surgery. Springs get a nice matchup with the Miami Marlins, except for their scorching hot second basemen…

Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Singles

Xavier Edwards might be the hottest bat in baseball…when it comes to singles.

He has a 15-game on-base streak, he just hit for the cycle two nights ago and comes into this matchup mashing lefties.

7:10 PM: Cubs - Reds

Justin Steele gets a nice matchup with the Cincinnati Reds, who strike out the 11th most in 2024, the 5th most in the last 30 games, and the 10th most in their last 15 games.

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Steele has a 50% hit rate against the Reds this season on this line, and his miss he only missed by one strikeout. He’s 50% on the season and 50% at home. It’s somewhat of a toss-up with his hit rates, but an added plus to this is that the Reds just added Ty France via trade, giving them another bat that strikes out over 20% of the time versus lefties (22.2%).

7:10 PM: Mariners - Red Sox

Jarren Duran is red hot, with 35 total bases over his last 10 games.

Jarren Duran Over 1.5 Total Bases

Duran gets a nice matchup too, against Seattle Mariners starter Luis Castillo, who has been much harder hit against lefties than he has versus righties. And Duran has a short history against Castillo, with a single and a home run in 6 plate appearances.

7:10 PM: Twins - Mets

Staying with a hot bat, Pete Alonso is our pick in the Twins/Mets game.

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases

Alonso has 26 total bases over his last 10 games, and 12 bases in his last two. He gets a juicy matchup against Twins rookie David Festa, who’s allowed 20 hits over his first three starts (11 XBHs).

7:45 PM: Rangers - Cardinals

There’s one one player in the Rangers lineup with a good sample size and good historical data versus Cardinals starter Lance Lynn.

Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Semien has also absolutely been on first, going over this line in 7 of his last 10 games, and has gone over this line in 3 of his last 4 games against the Cardinals.

8:10 PM: Pirates - Astros

There hasn’t been a lot of power in Jose Altuve’s bat lately, but he’s had the contact.

Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Singles

Altuve has singles in 8 of his last 10 games, and 67% of his games this season.

He‘ll face southpaw Bailey Falter, and Altuve has a .339 average versus lefties versus a .303 average versus righties.

8:10 PM: Royals - White Sox

Bobby Witt Jr. has gone from being a great player this season, to an absolute superstar.

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr. has gone over this line in 6 of his last 10 games, and in his 4 misses, he had 2 hits, runs, and RBIs in each game. He faces White Sox starter Jonathan Cannow, who he has a .600 batting average against in 5 plate appearances with one RBI.

8:10 PM: Braves - Brewers

There wasn’t a lot to love in this game, but we did find some value in Garrett Mitchell.

Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 Hits

Mitchell gets right-hander Bryce Elder. This is a case of paper meets rock; Mitchell has hit righties much better than he has lefties, and lefties have hit up Elder at a much higher rate than righties have.

9:38 PM: Rockies - Angels

Griffin Canning has been, well, not great at home.

Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Hits Allowed

He’s been over this line in 82% of his home starts. And although he faces a not-so-great Colorado Rockies team, they’ve been playing better recently with the 5th best on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers over their last 15 and last 30 games.

9:40 PM: Nationals - DBacks

Straight matchup play with this game, who also happens to be one of the most consistent bats in all of baseball.

Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases

Marte has smashed Patrick Corbin in his career, with a .417 average over 13 plat appearances and 3 extra-base hits. He’s also been over this line in 7 of his last 10 games.

9:40 PM: Dodgers - Padres

Matt Waldron gets the Dodgers at the right time.

Matt Waldron Over 4.5 Strikeouts

The Dodgers have been strikeout crazy lately, striking out the 2nd most in baseball against right-handed pitcher in their last 15 games, and 4th most over their last 30. He also had 6 strikeouts against the Dodgers earlier this year and has strikeout rates at or above 20% on 5 of the Dodgers in the expected lineup (in a small sample size).

9:45 PM: Athletics - Giants

JP Sears has been hit hard in his last two outings, giving up 18 hits and the data suggests it doesn’t look good for Sears today.

JP Sears Over 5.5 Hits Allowed

The Giants are one of the hottest offensive teams in baseball, so Sears has his work cut out for him today.

The Giants have 13, 11, 6, 14, and 11 hits over their last 5 games.

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Thursday Recap

1-2 on Thursday, 119/231 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 51% hit rate. Let’s start climbing today.

MLB Recap

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Guerrero Jr. had a hit, but just one base.

Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Every player who started on Thursday for the Rays had a hit except Arozarena. Can’t make that up.

Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ Lindor had a home run, easy cash to avoid an 0-3 day.

NFL Futures

From our July 18th newsletter: Tyreek Hill Over 1375.7 Receiving Yards ⁉️ To be determined