A Full Slate: 15 Games in Major League Baseball

Author

Michael Mohorovich
July 23, 2024

In partnership with

Intercom for Startups

Join Intercom’s Early Stage Program to receive a 90% discount.

Get a direct line to your customers. Try the only complete AI-first customer service solution.

Trends, Trends, Trends…

A big slate in Major League Baseball means a big slate of trends in the newsletter for you! 🫵 You’ll find trends from us and one of our featured partners, @KyleJustBets, contributed a few trends for this newsletter. Check them out below! But first…

Want to Win a Free Year of Props.Cash?!

Here’s how:

  • Use the link directly below to share the newsletter.

  • That link is unique to you. It’ll track how many people sign up for the newsletter via your link.

  • If you refer 10, you’ll be entered into a draw for a Props.Cash hoodie.

  • If you refer 20, you’ll be entered into a draw for a free one-year subscription to Props.Cash.

One of our top partners, @KyleJustBets, contributed two key trends for today's newsletter. Check him out on X; he has a great pitcher model that he’s built and drops solid plays every single day. Check out the trends exclusive to the newsletter below. ⬇️

This is a great spot that frankly, should be set higher by the books based on the matchup. Taillon has gone this line in 4 out of his last 5 games, including 2 straight covers at home where he’s posted 10 and 7 Ks, respectively.

Tonight, he gets a matchup with the Brewers who have been exceptionally swing-happy as of late, posting the 5th highest K% to RHP over the last 15 days.

The Brewers Strikeout Rates

And Taillon has already had great success against this exact Brewers lineup THIS season, posting 7, 4, and 5 Ks across three matchups this year. The lone time he saw them at Wrigley Field was when he notched an impressive 7 Ks in 6 IP.

Last night, Cubs starter Javier Assad just only 3.1 IP against the Brewers, and the Cubs had to use 5 bullpen arms to close out the game. It’s no wonder the books expect Taillon to go deep again tonight, with his outs prop set at 17.5 once again. When Taillon has pitched deep into a game this season, he’s over 4.5 strikeouts in 75% of home games this season, including 12 out of his last 15 overall and 4 straight whether on the road or at home. 

Even better is that 5 out of the last 7 RHP to face the Brewers have gone over 4.5 Ks, and 4 straight RHP with 5+ innings pitched have also gone over against Milwaukee.

When the stars align, you gotta go for it.

Colin Rea Over 1.5 Walks

Bad news, books. This is an exceptional prop at + money.

This is a number Rea is over 3 out of the last 5 games including 53% on the season. On the road, he’s even worse - going over in 67% of games this season and 4 out of his last 5 games.

Tonight, he gets a matchup with the Cubs who are atop the league in BB% this season, ranking 4th highest against opposing RHP.

The Cubs walkout rates this season

This season alone, the Cubs walk the 5th most overall, including the 6th most at home. On top of this is the fact that the Cubs have drawn the 2nd most walks in the entire league over the last 30 days. Six out of the last 8 starting RHP to face CHC on the road have gone over 1.5 walks, including 3 out of the last 4 overall disregarding a home/away split. This also includes 3 out of the last 4 to go at least 5 innings pitched against Chicago.

This season, when Rea pitches at least 18 outs, he’s over this number in 6/8 road games including 4 straight.

The trends in this section are straight-up head-to-head trends based on past matchups and historical matchups. Let’s go!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases

Rays starter Shawn Armstrong will open this game, which means Guerrero Jr. will get at least one plate appearance against him. In their head-to-head matchups so far, Guerrero has gotten the better of the Armstrong, with 8 hits in twelve plate appearances.

Guerrero Jr. has 7 singles, 1 double, and 3 RBIs versus Armstrong

Even when Armstrong leaves the game, he’s expected to be replaced by Tyler Anderson, who is being recalled from the minors to work bulk innings. He last pitched in the bigs on May 30th, after pitching to a 6.19 ERA in 56.2 innings before being sent down. It also helps that Guerrero Jr. is starting to get hot again, post-all-star break.

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases

Small sample size? Yes. But it’s Shohei Ohtahi, baby!

Ohtani has 4 plate appearances against Jordan Hicks and a .500 batting average

Ohtani has also been over this line in 7 of his last 10 games.

Bobby Witt Jr has come out of the all-star break looking like a living, breathing cheat code.

Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases

Bobby Witt Jr. has 12 (!!!!!) hits in the first four games out of the all-star break, outrageous numbers. He has 22 total bases in those games, thanks to 5 extra-base hits.

He also gets Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed 5 or more hits in 11 of his 13 starts this season, and has righties hitting .332 off him.

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

Tuesday Recap

3-0 this week with a void and the Tyreek Hill trend months away from being finalized. 114/223 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, 5

MLB Recap

Michael Wacha Under 5.5 Hits Allowed ✅ Wacha allowed 4 hits over 7 innings, nailed it! ❌

Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Four hits, three-run game for Soto. A monster start to the second half.

Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Bichette comes through with a hit and a run.

Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs VOID This game was postponed.

Tyreek Hill Over 1375.7 Receiving Yards ⁉️ To be determined.