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Three Game Sixes. Six Stars. Here's What the History Says.
We’re in store for quite the night in the NBA. Three, count ‘em, THREE, game sixes.
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, Hawks lead New York 3-2
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, Celtics lead Philly 3-2
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, Minnesota leads Denver 3-2
Based on points per game in these playoffs, injuries, depth charts, and tendencies in their series, these are the number one options for tonight for these six teams:
Jalen Brunson, NYK
CJ McCollum, ATL
Joel Embiid, PHI
Jaylen Brown, BOS
Julius Randle, MIN
Jamal Murray, DEN
The Knicks and Atlanta aren’t up for debate. Philly could be Maxey, but the way Embiid has played when healthy in this series gives him the edge. Brown over Tatum, only because of Tatum’s Achilles, any other year it would be Tatum.
Minnesota is a weird one. Ayo Donsumu has been great in this series, but he’s never played in a game six in his career, and he’s questionable with calf soreness. Anthony Edwards is out, leaving Julius Randle as the obvious candidate. But he’s also never played in a game six in his career, so we had to take a different angle with the Timberwolves. You’ll get a better understanding of our angle when you read the Randle part below.
And Murray over Jokic only because of how well Gobert has played in the series, and Murray leads the Nuggets in PPG in this series.
Before we get into the six players’ career game six history, let’s first look at how star players have looked in the last 10 game sixes in NBA history
Last 10 Games Sixes
This is a chart showing the game, what the series was, the points from the star player on the trailing teams, and the leading team.
When they’re leading:
In the last 10 game sixes, the star player of the team leading the series 3-2 is averaging 27.5 points per game.
In those games, the star player had 25 or fewer points five times.
They had one game between 25 & 30 points.
And they had four games with 31 or more points, with one forty-point game
In the last 10 game sixes, the star player of the team trailing the series 3-2 is averaging 23.7 points per game.
In the last 10 game sixes, the star player of the team trailing in the series 3-2 is averaging 23.7 points per game.
In those games, the star player had 25 or fewer points five times.
They had 5 games between 25 & 30 points.
And they had zero games with 31 or more points.
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The Players
Jalen Brunson
This will be Jalen Brunson’s 9th game six as a starter. This is how he breaks down across multiple splits:
Across the 8 games, he’s averaged 29.6 points per game.
Six of those games have been on the road, where he’s averaged 32.6 points per game.
In the two home games, he averaged 20.5 points per game.
In the 5 games where his team was leading coming into the game, Brunson is averaging 31.8 points per game.
In the 3 games where his team was trailing coming into the game, Brunson is averaging 26.0 points per game.
CJ McCollum
This will be CJ McCollum’s 5th game six as a starter. This is how he breaks down across multiple splits:
Across the 4 games, he’s averaged 21.75 points per game.
All four games were at home, where he averaged 21.7 points per game.
He’s only played one other game where his team was leading, and he had 20 points.
In the 3 games where his team was trailing coming into the game, McCollum averaged 22.3 points per game.
Joel Embiid
This will be Joel Embiid’s 6th game six as a starter. This is how he breaks down across multiple splits:
Across the 5 previous games, he’s averaged 25.2 points per game.
Four of the games have been on the road, where’ he’s averaged 27.2 points per game.
In the only home game, he scored 17 points per game.
Four times, he was trailing in the series. In those four games, he averaged 23.25 points per game with 22 or fewer points three times and 39 points in the other game.
In the only game where his team was leading, he scored 33 points.
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Jaylen Brown
This will be Jaylen Brown’s 12th game six as a starter. This is how he breaks down across multiple splits:
Across the 11 previous games, he’s averaged 24.4 points per game.
In the 8 game sixes on the road, he’s averaged 23.0 points per game.
In the three home games, he’s averaged 28.3 points per game.
Six times he was trailing in the series, and in those six games, he’s averaged 24.1 points per game.
Five times his team was leading in the series, and in those five games, he’s averaged 24.8 points per game.
Julius Randle
Incredibly, this is Randle’s first career game six. Instead of looking at his numbers in career game sixes, we’ll focus on his numbers without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo. In the one game without both of them, the last game of this series, he had 27 points. But it’s the underlying numbers that are more interesting.
He’s averaged 15 field goal attempts per game this season in all situations, and 5.8 free throw attempts per game. In the first game without Donte and Edwards, he had 15 field goal attempts and got to the line 11 times. Even in the game where Donte and Edwards were hurt, he had 14 field goal attempts and got to the line 10 times.
Let’s assume some correction tonight: in games with 14+ field goal attempts and 8+ free throws, he averaged 27.6 points per game and cleared his points line tonight (23.5) in 81% of the 21 games that qualify.
And lastly, in games with above-average free-throw volume, where he has 6 or more attempts, he’s averaging 25.5 points per game with a 67% hit rate against this line.
Jamal Murray
This will be Jaylen Brown’s 9th game six as a starter. This is how he breaks down across multiple splits:
Across the 8 previous games, he’s averaged 24.1 points per game.
In the 6 game sixes on the road, he’s averaged 24.5 points per game.
In the two home games, he’s averaged 23.0 points per game.
Three times he was trailing in the series, and in those three games, he’s averaged 32.0 points per game.
Five times his team was leading in the series, and in those five games, he’s averaged 19.4 points per game.