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Giants and Cowboys: Betting Trends for Thursday Night Football
Can the Under Continue? + MLB Playoff Push Trends
Michael Mohorovich
September 26, 2024
In partnership with
Note: Our MLB trend is for the 1:05 game, scroll to the bottom to see it!
NFC East Kick Off Week 4
Tonight is arguably a must-win game for both the Cowboys and Giants, with both teams coming in at 1-2. As we enter week four, we wanted to bring back Tuesday's under/over chart for your research purposes this week.
Note: The numbers are listed as such in each week's column (Players who qualified under that line parameter and overs-under).
Position and Line | Week One | Week Two | Week Three | What We Can Take Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
QB’s, 199.5 Passing Yards or Higher | 29 (8-21) 72% went under in week one | 23 (8-15) 65% went under in week two | 18 (8-10) 55% went under in week three | Fewer QBs qualify each week, so not surprisingly, lines are moving higher as the season progresses. But the under continues to trump the over. We may need to adjust our qualifying line in the future. |
RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher | 31 (12-19) 63% went under in week one | 29 (19-10) 34% went under in week two | 29 (13-16) 55% went under in week three | Running backs were the only group to flip between weeks one and two, but we had a course correction in week three. |
WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 30 (9-21) 70% went under in week one | 25 (12-13) 52% went under in week two | 23 (11-12) 52% went under in week three | Fewer players have qualified each week, but the under stayed consistent from weeks 2 to 3. Still, a lot more overs compared to week one. |
TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 12 (2-10) 83% went under in week one | 12 (6-6) 50% went under in week two | 11 (3-8) 72% went under in week three | One less player qualified, but tight ends pulled back this week compared to a week ago. |
Thursday Night Football Trends
An NFC matchup to start week 4 on Thursday Night Football. Can it get any better than that?!
Devin Singletary Over 15.5 Longest Rush
Singletary has gone over this line in two of three games this season, and the only one he missed was when he faced Minnesota, the 3rd best rush defense in the NFL through 3 weeks. The Cowboys are on the opposite end of that, ranking dead last in rush yards against per game so far. 4 of the 5 running backs they’ve faced have gone over their longest rush line, two of which were as long or longer than Singletary’s line.
Hill and Henry both had longer runs than this against Dallas last week
Singletary’s start to the season, combined with the Cowboys’ brutal rush defense, makes this trend attractive.
Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions
Jones threw two picks in week one and has gone back-to-back weeks without throwing a pick. But it’s his history on primetime that grabbed our attention.
Jones has 10 picks over his last 10 primetime games
In the first three weeks of the season, the Cowboys have racked up 3 picks. The only QB they didn’t pick off was Lamark Jackson, who attempted just 15 passes. Jones also threw 2 picks in his last game against Dallas.
Dak Prescott Over 34.5 Passing Attempts
The Cowboys don’t have a rush offense. Ezekial Elliot and Rico Dowdle have combined for just 21 rushing attempts through the first three weeks, meanwhile, Dak Prescott has thrown the ball 122 times in three games. The dude’s arm may fall off.
Prescott has thrown the ball a ton this year
Prescott has gone over this number in two of three games this season, and his only miss in week one he attempted 32 passes.
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MLB Trends From @WallaBets
With the MLB playoff push on, and teams fighting for a spot, there’s value to be found in the big games and star players coming through in the clutch. @WallaBets compiles a list every day of the hottest hitters in baseball:
Hot Bats 9/26 ⚾️
Eight names to keep an eye on for hit props today! Hope this helps out with your research, let's see who can bring the 🔥 for us
Likes / RTs / Follows appreciated, thanks 🤝
📊@propsdotcash w/ the data. Sign up for your player prop research 🫡
— Walla🔪🤘 (@WallaBets)
2:09 PM • Sep 26, 2024
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (1 PM)
The one we wanted to highlight further Witt Jr. He has a great matchup against Patrick Corbin.
Witt has a .323 average against lefties, and righties have hit Corbin to a .322 average
He’s 3 for 3 against Corbin with a single, a double, and a home run. The Royals still need to clinch a playoff spot, and they need their best player to snap out of this mini-slump he’s in. Witt has 7 hits over his last 5 games, but no runs or RBIs in his last 5 or 7, respectively. This is strictly a matchup play because Witt has gone under this HRR line in 7 of his last 10 games.
Bobby Witt Jr. L10 games
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Tuesday Recap
3-1 on Tuesday, 190/366 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate.
MLB Recap
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Ozuna had 3 HRR
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Tatis went 0/4
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Ohtani had 2 HRR
WNBA Recap
Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 Rebounds ✅ 5 rebounds for Howard