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Hardest Hit → Ballparks → Potential Hitters

In Tuesday’s newsletter, we took a look at the hardest hit pitchers in baseball, then identified the ballparks they were playing in for home run likelihood (weather & tendency), and finally, identified opposing batters who had encouraging data against that pitcher. We ended up with Cal Raleigh, Wyatt Langford, and Willson Contreras - 2 of the three hit home runs. 

We’re going to do it again today; it’s an opportunity to stress-test this process once more. Before we jump into that, we will have a special edition newsletter on Sunday, so keep an eye out! There’s a contest being announced.

Hardest Hit Pitchers

The top five hardest hit pitchers today (for the games from 5 PM onwards) are as follows…

1. Marcus Stroman, 45.5

2. Jack Kochanowicz, 45.5

3. Jonathan Cannon, 45.3

4. Miles Mikolas, 44.9

5. Cal Quantrill, 44.0

Pitchers & Ballparks

Marcus Stroman is at home at Yankee Stadium for a game against Seattle. The wind is blowing out to the left and the left corner field at 2 to 3 miles per hour. Temperatures will start in the low 80s and will fall to the high 70s.

Jack Kochanowicz is at home at Angel Stadium for a game against Texas. The wind is blowing out to center field at 3 to 4 miles per hour. Temperatures will start in the high 70s and will fall to the low 70s.

Jonathan Cannon is at home at Guaranteed Rate Field for a game against Cleveland. The wind is coming in at 5 to 4 miles per hour toward the first baseline, with temperatures consistently in the low 70s.

Miles Mikolas is at home at Busch Stadium for a game against Washington. Wind is blowing to the right foul area/right field at 2 to 1 miles per hour, with temperatures starting in the high 80s and leveling off in the mid 80s.

Cal Quantrill is on the road at Great American Ball Park for a game against Cincinnati. Winds are blowing in at 5 to 6 miles per hour toward the first baseline, with temperatures in the high to mid-70s.

From this list, we’ll eliminate Quantrill and Cannon, with the wind blowing in for both pitchers. Admittedly, none of the pitchers have great weather for home runs, but Stroman, Kochanowicz, and Mikolas are at least getting some help from the wind.

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Potential Home Run Hitters

Jorge Polanco or Cal Raleigh vs Marcus Stroman

Far and away, Raleigh has the highest ISO on the team versus right-handed pitchers (.326), and leads major league baseball in home runs. Against right-handed pitchers, Raleigh has 92% of his home runs to right field, which doesn’t play well with the wind, but Stroman has given up 3 home runs to lefties in 42 plate appearances, compared to just 1 to righties - and Raleigh is a switch hitter.

Polanco is another interesting player to highlight - he has a respectable .211 ISO vs righties, Stroman has given up all 4 of his home runs this season to fastballs, and Polanco has a decent 12.9 barrel percentage against fastballs this season. He’s also hot - he has 2 home runs in his last 5 games.

Corey Seager vs Jack Kochanowicz

Seager is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and this is a matchup worth noting. The weather isn’t playing into Seager’s strong side, but almost everything else makes this encouraging: Seager has 3 home runs in his last 2 games, he has 8 of his 13 home runs vs right-handed pitchers, and Kochanowicz has given up 9 home runs to lefties (just 3 to righties). Plus, Seager has a 19.2 barrel percentage against fastballs, and Kochanowicz has given up 10 of his 16 home runs via his fastball this season.

Kochanowicz has an HR per 9 of 1.53 at home vs lefties, too.

James Wood vs Miles Mikolas

For Mikolas, we have to focus on a lefty. He has an HR per 9 of 1.40 vs lefties at home this season, giving up 8 home runs this season to lefties compared to 5 to righties. On the Nationals, James Wood has the highest ISO vs right-handed pitchers, a whopping .265. The next closest on Washington is .214. Can he go back-to-back? He homered in his last game.

Wood also has a 22.5 barrel percentage against fastballs, and Mikolas has given up 10 of his 15 home runs with that pitch this season.

Batter vs Pitcher Matchup Sheet, July 10th

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups — July 10th 🔥

⚾ Jarren Duran: 11 HRR in his L2 💥
⚾ CJ Abrams: 2+ HRR in 10 of L11 🔥
⚾ Taylor Ward: 2+ HRR in 7 of L10 💣
⚾ Corbin Carroll: 9 HRR in 3 games since July 7 📈

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We will have a special edition newsletter on Sunday, so keep an eye out!