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Head-to-Head in the NBA, NFL Tonight

Head-to-Head in the NBA, NFL Tonight

Big divisional game in the NFL, some historical H2H data in the NBA tonight...

Michael Mohorovich
December 19, 2024

Big Slate in the NBA, Big Game in the NFL

There are 13 games in the NBA tonight, and one big one in the NFL; the Chargers and Broncos play with massive playoff implications. We’re using today’s newsletter to highlight some historical head-to-head data for Thursday Night Football, and three players in the NBA tonight.

Thursday Night Football

The AFC wild-card race is tightly contested, with just one game separating the Broncos and Chargers. A win by the Chargers tonight would even their records at 9-6. Here's a look at the full NFL playoff picture.

Justin Herbert has a strong track record against the Broncos, and that’s the key head-to-head matchup we’re focusing on in this newsletter.

Herbert vs the Broncos

Justin Herbert’s prop lines look like this tonight:

228.5 passing yards
1.5 passing touchdowns
33.5 passing attempts
21.5 passing completions
35.5 longest pass completion

We’re going to go through a quick analysis of each prop.

232.5 Passing Yards

Herbert is averaging 211.4 passing yards per game this season and 210.9 yards per game at home this season. His historical data against Denver is encouraging, averaging 230.7 yards per game in his last 6 games vs the Broncos, and in one of those six he only played 46% of the snaps and threw for just 96 yards. If you eliminate that game, his average versus the Broncos jumps to 257 yards per game.

Herbert’s head-to-head passing yards data vs Denver

For what it's worth, this season the Broncos have averaged 239.38 passing yards per game against, and teams are averaging 36.08 pass attempts against Denver.

1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Herbert has 2 or more passing touchdowns in 5 of 14 games this season, and 3 of 7 home games. Against Denver, he has multi-passing touchdown games in 3 of his last 6, but has failed to hit that number in back-to-back games against them.

Herbert’s head-to-head passing touchdown data vs Denver

The Broncos allow 1.31 passing touchdowns per game, 13th in the NFL. Only 1 of the last 5 QB’s to play Denver has a multi-touchdown game (Jameis Winston, 4 TDs, two weeks ago).

33.5 Pass Attempts

Herbert has 34+ pass attempts in just 4 of 14 games this season and just 2 of his 7 home games. Head-to-head against Denver, he’s attempted 34+ in 4 of his last 6 against Denver, averaging 36.7.

Herbert’s head-to-head passing attempts data vs Denver

Teams, on average, attempt 36.08 pass attempts against Denver, 28th in the NFL.

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21.5 Pass Completions

Herbert has 22+ pass completions in just 1 of his 14 starts this season, averaging 18.2 completions per game. At home, that average drops to an even 18, and he’s 0/7 at home against this completion number. Head-to-head with Denver, Herbert has gone over this number in 4 of his last 6, but the last two games were misses, including a game back in October.

Herbert’s head-to-head passing completion data vs Denver

This season, Denver has allowed 23.31 completions on average per game, 6th most in the NFL.

35.5 Longest Pass Completion

Herbert has a pass of 36+ yards in 8 of 14 games and 3 of his 7 home games, averaging 34.3 longest completion at home. Against Denver, he’s been over this number in just 2 of his last 6 games, including earlier this season.

Herbert’s head-to-head longest completion data vs Denver

The Broncos allow an average long pass of 34.77, the 8th least in the NFL.

NBA Head-To-Head

There are 13 games in the NBA tonight and in those 13 games, we found some interesting head-to-head data we wanted to highlight.

Cade Cunningham, 24.5 Points

Cunningham has averaged 23.5 points per game this season, but his head-to-head data vs Utah is strong.

Cade Cunningham’s head-to-head points data vs Utah

He’s gone over this number in 4 straight games against Utah, averaging 28.3 points per game. The Jazz are also not great defensively, giving up 120.32 points per game (28th in the NBA) and 25.61 points per game to point guards (26th in the NBA).

Malcolm Brogdon, 12.5 Points

Brogdon has averaged 13.9 points per game in his 9 games this season, going over the 12.5 line in 6 of 9. Against Charlotte, dating back to his days with Indiana, Boston, and Portland, Brogdon has averaged 19 points over his last 6 games against Charlotte.

Malcolm Brogdon’s head-to-head points data vs Charlotte

Charlotte is allowing 24.88 points per game to point guards (20th), and 112.77 points per game overall (14th).

Domantas Sabonis, 5.5 Assists

Domas is averaging just above this line this season, with 6 assists per game. But in his last 10 matchups against the Lakers, Sabonis has been a passing machine.

Domantas Sabonins’s head-to-head assists data vs the Lakers

He’s averaged 8.5 assists, going under 5.5 assists in just 1 of the 10 games. The Lakers meanwhile, allow 4.21 assists per game to centers but allow the 5th most assists overall (28.38).