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Can History Repeat Itself?

In the January 23rd edition of Competitive Edge, we highlighted some interesting head-to-head data in the NBA. De’Aaron Fox had gone over his 23.5 points line in 8 of his last 11 games against Denver, but scored just 17 that night and went under. But the other two head-to-head trends we highlighted did hit!

Norman Powell had 7 assists total in two previous games against Washington, and with an assist line of 1.5, felt like a solid trend to share. He had plenty of other data that made us comfortable with it as well, and Powell came through with 3 assists.

Lastly, Jaylen Brown had averaged 9.3 assists over his last 4 games against the Lakers and had other solid data behind him, too. Brown racked up 8 assists on January 23rd, against a rebound line of just 5.5. Easy peasy.

Tonight, we found additional head-to-head data that we thought we’d bring to your attention, including some in the NHL.

The Select Few

In the NBA, we’ve found three pieces of NBA head-to-head data that jumped out at us:

• Tyrese Haliburton, Assists

• DeMar DeRozan, Points

• Scoot Henderson, Points

And in the NHL, two players jumped out at us, both for their head-to-head goal-scoring records.

• Nathan MacKinnon

• Auston Matthews

Tyrese Haliburton, 7.5 Assists

Tyrese Haliburton goes up against James Harden and company tonight, looking to keep a streak alive and register his 6th game in a row with 8 or more assists against the Clippers.

Haliburton has averaged 10.1 assists versus the Clippers in 7 games dating back to 2021, and as you can see, he has 8 or more assists against them in 5 straight games. LA allows 8.35 assists per game to opposing point guards, 7th least in the NBA, but still enough for Haliburton to keep his streak alive.

Throughout their last 10 games, the Clippers have allowed opposing point guards to go over their assist line in 53% of their games, and on the season that percentage holds at 53%.

The other metric worth noting is that Haliburton has cleared this line in 69% of his games this season, averaging 8.5 assists.

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DeMar DeRozan, 20.5. Points

The mid-range king versus the worst mid-range defense in the NBA, what could go wrong?

DeMar scored a whopping 43% of his points from the mid-range, and Portland allows the most points in the league from that area of the court. So it’s not a surprise that DeMar has dominated this matchup in the past, going over this 20.5 points line in 5 of his last six matchups against them, including a 23-point outing in October.

There are two worries here for DeMar: Zach Lavine is expected to make his Kings debut, and even with their experience in Chicago, there could be some growing pains for the first couple of games. Hopefully, they gel right away, but it is worth noting.

The other is that DeMar has 19 or fewer points in 4 of his last five games. You could say, “Well, maybe he breaks out of the slump tonight”. Or you could say, “He’s struggling, it’ll continue tonight.” Let’s hope it’s the former.

He’s still averaging 21.7 points per game this season, eclipsing this points line 57% of the time.

Scoot Henderson, 12.5 Points

Scoot has come on, man!

Scoot Henderson is averaging 17.16 points per game over his last 6, going over this 12.5 line in 5 of the six games. In the game he missed, where he finished with 10 points, he only attempted 7 shots. When he attempts 9 or more this season, he’s averaging 15.8 points and has gone over this line 70% of the time.

And, as promised, his head-to-head data is encouraging. It’s a small sample size, just two games, but he’s averaged 17.5 points in two games against Sacramento, going over this 12.5-point line in both starts.

And his shot chart is encouraging. Although the Kings take away his second favorite spot on the court pretty well (2nd least amount of points per game allowed in the restricted zone), they give up the 3rd most points from his second favorite area, beyond the arc.

Can Scoot combine his recent strong play with his history against Sacramento?

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Nathan MacKinnon, 0.5 Goals

The Calgary Flames must just hate Nathan MacKinnon.

In 6 of his last eight games against Calgary, MacKinnon has multi-point games. In all but one of those multi-point games, he scored. And he scored in one of those games where he racked up just one point.

The Flame’s weakness link this season has been the powerplay - they allow the most goals in the league shorthanded, and MacKinnon is a powerplay savant. Can he make it 5 games in a row against the Flames?

Auston Matthews, 0.5 Goals

Auston Matthews has played 7 games in his career against Seattle and has goals in 4 of those games. Not that significant, right? It’s his play IN Seattle that caught our eye.

3 games, three goals for Matthews in the Pacific Northwest. Yes, he was held off the scoresheet the first time he played at Climate Pledge Arena, but he has three goals in his last two games there. Plus, Matthews is in a col stretch here - four straight games without a goal.

He hasn’t gone five games without a goal this year and didn’t go 5 games without a goal last year.

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See you Sunday for our Super Bowl Newsletter!