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BvP Data for Baseball’s Return

When we started our research for today’s newsletter, we found inspiration in the Batter vs Pitcher subsection on the Props.Cash website. Six players have 12 or more plate appearances and a .300 average or better against the starting pitcher they’ll go to battle against on Friday. Those six players are:

• Rafael Devers

• Gunnar Henderson

• Kyle Tucker

• Nathaniel Lowe

• Ryan O’Hearn

• Josh Bell

We’re going to look at each of the six batters, the pitchers they’re facing, and recent performances for both. We’ll start with the Bell, who has the lowest average of the six batters in their matchup, and end with Devers, who has the highest.

Josh Bell vs Dylan Cease

Bell has gone to battle with Cease 13 times and walked away with 3 hits (all singles) and 2 walks - good for a .300 average. Bell also struck out 3 times. It is worth noting they haven’t faced each other since 2023, but switch hitters do have the highest average of the three splits (righties, lefties, switch hitters) against Cease, at .260. Bell is a switch hitter, hitting .241 against righties. It may not sound like much, but he’s hitting a brutal .125 against righties.

Before the break, Bell had at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games, with 2+ HRR in five of those games.

Ryan O’Hearn vs Taj Bradley

The same as Bell, O’Hearn has gone to battle 13 times against Bradley, but he has walked away with a much better .417 average with 2 singles, 2 doubles, and a HR, plus a .528 wOBA. He’s never struck out against the lefty, and O’Hearn has a much better average against lefties this season (.303) than he does righties (.222).

O’Hearn didn’t exactly close out the first half strong - he had 5 total hits in his last 10 games and 13 total HRR in those games, averaging just 1.3 HRR, a drop from his season average of 1.8 HRR per game.

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Nathaniel Lowe vs Dylan Cease

In 14 plate appearances versus Dylan Cease, Nathaniel Lowe owns a .556 average with 5 hits (3 singles and 2 home runs), and five walks. Just like Bell, Lowe’s handiness splits are drastically different; he’s hitting .180 vs lefties, and .248 against righties.

Lowe closed out his first half just ok - 7 hits in his final 10 games, 5 games without a hit, and 2+ HRR in 4 of his final 10.

Kyle Tucker vs Lucas Giolito

Giolito and Tucker have met at the plate 16 times, and Tucker has gotten the better of the righty - he has a .312 average and a .357 BABIP, with 4 singles, a double, and has only struck out twice. Tucker also has some solid numbers against righties this season, with a .286 average.

In his final 10 games before the break, Tucker had 2+ HRR five times, 3+ HRR twice, and had a hit in 7 of the 10.

Gunnar Henderson vs Taj Bradley

Even more than O’Hearn, Gunnar Henderson owns Taj Bradley. In 17 plate appearances against Bradley, Henderson has a .412 average with 5 singles, a double, and a HR, plus 6 strikeouts. He has a much better average vs righties (.311) than he does against lefties (.216), too.

He closed out the second half strong: he had 2+ HRR in 5 of his last 6 games, with 14 hits, runs, and RBIs.

Rafael Devers vs Chris Bassitt

Rafael Devers owns a .471 average in 17 plate appearances versus Bassitt with 3 singles, 2 doubles, and 3 home runs to go with 4 strikeouts. Lefties have been able to get to Bassitt, they own a .293 average against Chris this season.

Everyone knows how much Devers has struggled this season since being traded to San Francisco, and that was emphasized with his final 5 games: he went 0-20 in his final 5 games. If there’s anyone in baseball who needed the All-Star Break reset, it was Devers. The question is - will it work?

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See you Tuesday!