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Week One In The Books, Baseball On The Books

The first week of the NFL season is in the rear-view mirror, and it lived up to the hype. Thursday Night, the Eagles and Cowboys gave us a great game, and the rest of week one had some great storylines develop - a breakout game from Emeka Egbuka, the Miami Dolphins' disastrous start, and the Packers are looking scary good. Those are just a few takeaways from a week one that closed out two incredible comebacks by the Bills and Vikings.

On Thursday, we’ll shift our focus back onto the NFL. The Packers and Commanders will start week two in Wisconsin that night, and this is the first week with a two-game set on Monday night.

In today’s newsletter, we’re spotlighting the Props.Cash projection model — breaking down the three players with the highest projected HRR for tonight. We’ll walk you through the numbers and provide analysis to help you decide whether or not you like what the model is seeing for those three players. We also have the batter vs pitcher matchups at the bottom of the newsletter.

The Top Three

The top three batters, in the eyes of the projection model, are Junior Caminero, Brice Turang, and Cal Raleigh. All three are in the midst of solid seasons, and have a major similarity in their pitcher matchup tonight: they’ve never faced the starter they’re lined up to face tonight. Let’s start with #3 on that list, Caminero.

Player: Junior Caminero - Projection: 3.2 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Junior Caminero hasn’t had a plate appearance against White Sox starter Yoendrys Gomez, but Caminero is hitting .268 versus righties (.244 versus lefties) and has had some pretty solid outings in his last 10 games, with 2 or more HRR in 5 of his last 7 games.

And although he’s been shut out in his last 2 games versus a right-handed starter, Caminero is still averaging 3.6 HRR in his last 5 against a righty starter.

Although he hasn’t faced Yoendrys Gomez before, Gomez is a heavy fastball pitcher (55.8% pitch share), and Caminero has a 14.4 barrel percentage versus fastball this season.

Caminero also has a better barrel percentage against Gomez’s second favourite pitch, his breaking ball, which he throws 36.5% of the time.

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Player: Brice Turang - Projection: 3.2 Hits+Runs+RBIs

It’s not a surprise the model likes Turang - he has 4 or more HRR in 6 of his last 10 games, averaging hitting .361 with 6 multi-hit games.

He hasn’t battled with Texas starter Jack Leiter before, but Turang is hitting .290 versus right-handed pitchers this season. The one struggle for Turang is that lefties are only hitting .152 against Leiter this season.

Turang has been hot on the road, though. In his last 15 road games, he is hitting .351.

Player: Cal Raleigh - Projection: 3.4 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Don’t. Let. Cal. Get. Hot.

Big surprise here: the model likes a player who…

• has 3 home runs in his last 6 games…

• is averaging 3.0 HRR in his last 7 games…

• and has 12 HRR in his last 3 games.

Those 7 games have something in common: they’re all in September. And Raleigh struggled mightily in July and August, hitting a combined .183 with 17 home runs (33 home runs from April-June).

He’s starting to figure it out just as he rolls into this matchup with Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, who has been hit hard by switch-hitters this season, to the tune of a .288 average.

Can Raleigh stay hot? The model sure thinks so!

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Batter vs Pitcher Matchup September 9th

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - Sept 9th 🔥

⚾ Ramírez vs Cameron: Averaging 3.4 HRR in L5 games 🔥
⚾ Judge vs Mize: .714 AVG in 8 PA’s (3 singles, 2 doubles) 💥
⚾ Correa vs Berríos: 9 hits in L7 games, 2+ HRR in 6 of them 📈 
⚾ Ohtani vs Márquez: Ohtani .400 AVG in 8 PA’s vs him 💣

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See you Thursday!