Previewing the Home Run Derby

Today’s newsletter isn’t intended to give you a home run derby pick; instead, we want to give you all the relevant information in one place you can make the best decision as you see fit! And of course, midway through the newsletter, you’ll get your chance at MLB tickets thanks to our friends at ProphetX. Let’s go!

Since Pete Alonso declined his invitation to this year’s home run derby, it ensured that this year’s winner will be a newbie. James Wood, Oneil Cruz, Cal Raleigh, Matt Olson, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Junior Caminero, Brent Rooker, and Byron Buxton - one of them will be crowned this year’s winner for the first time.

We’re going to look at 4 subsections of factors in our preview:

• Weather and the ballpark

• Hard Hit%, Barrel%, and home run count amongst the hitters

• Personal history

• Recent play

The ballpark and weather are sure to come into play, which batters lead in hard hit percentage this season, which batters have the highest barrel percentage this season, a bit of personal history for all 8 batters and all of their pitchers, and how the players closed out the first half of the MLB season.

Make sure to reply to the poll at the bottom, it’s just a simple click. We’re going to select one winner from the poll to win a free month of Props.Cash.

Weather and the Ballpark

Wind? Not So Much

The Home Run Derby kicks off at 8 PM at Truist Park in Atlanta, with the wind at 7 miles per hour, coming in from the Northwest. Truist Park’s home plate points to the southeast. Unless the winds shift between us while writing this and the home run derby kicking off, the winds likely won’t play a big role for the players. It will be hot, with temperatures nearly reaching 90 degrees Fahrenheit at first pitch.

At the All-Star break, Truist Park ranks 19th in home runs, with an even 100.

Ballpark Dimensions

Truist Park measures 335 feet to left field, 400 feet to center field, and 325 feet to right. This benefits the lefties and the switch hitter: James Wood (L), Cal Raleigh (S), Matt Olson (L), Oneil Cruz (L), Jazz Chisholm Jr (L).

Batter Rankkings

Barrel Percentage

Amongst the 8 hitters, this is how they rank in barrel% this season. We used the barrel percentage per batted ball event metric (the percentage of balls they hit that produce an event that are barrelled), instead of the per plate appearances metric, because they’re going to hit the majority of, if not all, their pitches into play.

1. Oneil Cruz, 22.3%

2. Cal Raleigh, 20.3%

3. Jazz Chisholm Jr, 18.6%

4. James Wood, 18.5%

5. Matt Olson, 16.5%

6. Byron Buxton, 15.6%

7. Brent Rooker, 14.3%

8. Junior Caminero, 11.0%

Hard Hit Percentage

And this is how the hitters rank in hard hit percentage, which is what percentage of their hits that came off the bat at 95 miles per hour or more.

1. Oneil Cruz, 58.0%

2. James Wood, 55.6%

3. Byron Buxton, 55.0%

4. Matt Olson, 54.6%

5. Cal Raleigh. 49.4%

6. Brent Rooker, 48.3%

7. Junior Caminero, 47.5%

8. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 44.7%

Home Runs

And this is how the hitters rank in home runs this season:

1. Cal Raleigh, 38

2. James Wood, 24

3. Junior Caminero, 23

4. Byron Buxton, 21

5. Brent Rooker, 20

6. Matt Olson, 17

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr, 17

8. Oneil Cruz, 16

Career Home Runs at Truist Park

Lastly, this is how many home runs per at-bat each batter has had in his career at Truist Park in Atlanta. This isn’t a statistic we don’t put a lot of value in, but we did the research anyway, so you didn’t have to.

1. Oneil Cruz, 8.0 (8 at-bats, 1 HR)

2. Brent Rooker, 11.0 (11 at-bats, 1 HR)

3. Matt Olson, 16.96 AB’s (1052 at-bats, 62 HR’s)

4. Jazz Chisholm, 19.80 (99 at-bats, 5 HR’s)

5. Byron Buxton, 22.00 (22 at-bats, 1 HR)

6. James Wood, 25.00 (25 at-bats, 1 HR)

Cal Raleigh has zero home runs in 4 at-bats, and Junior Caminero has never registered an at-bat in Atlanta.

We’ll continue, but first, want a chance at those free MLB tickets? Here it is! ⬇️

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Personal History With Their Pitcher

Coaches, dads, mentors, managers - there’s a variety of different people with different roles in these players’ lives that’ll be pitching to them on Monday night.

Who’s Pitching?

In our prep for today’s newsletter, we came across Jared Smith’s breakdown of who’s pitching to each batter, and we’ve linked it before. It’s a great breakdown.

Check out Jared’s day-to-day content here, here, and his Linktree here. He’s a great resource in the space.

Recent Play

Sunday is the final game before the All-Star break, so the stats below won’t include anything that happens on Sunday. But here is how each batter closed out their final two weeks (June 28th-July 12th) before the Sunday slate:

The Final 10

Matt Olson: Olson had 2 home runs in 13 games and a 37.8% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

Cal Raleigh: Raleigh had 6 home runs in 13 games and a 27.3% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

James Wood: Wood had 2 home runs in 13 games and a 20.0% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

Oneil Cruz: Cruz had 3 home runs in 12 games and a 48.3% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

Junior Caminero: Caminero had 3 home runs in 13 games and a 44.7% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

Byron Buxton: Buxton had 3 home runs in 12 games and a 39.4% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

Brent Rooker: Rooker had 4 home runs in 13 games and a 47.1% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

Jazz Chisholm Jr: Jazz had 5 home runs in 13 games and a 43.2% hard hit rate in his last two weeks.

So, now what?!

After analyzing all of that data, we’re rooting for James Wood to win with his batting practice coach on the mound and the lefty bat going to work. Who do you have winning the derby?!

See you Tuesday after the home run derby!