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Home Runs on July 2nd

We’re using a four-step process to identify possible home run hitters in today’s MLB slate. Step one: Identify the ballparks with the most home runs this season. These are the top 15…

1. Dodger Stadium (LA), 151 Home Runs

2. George M. Steinbrenner Field (TB), 132

3. Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL), 131

4. Rogers Centre (TOR), 123

5. Sutter Health Park (ATH), 116

6. Yankee Stadium (NY), 114

7. Chase Field (ARI), 108

8. Great American Ball Park (CIN), 108

9. Angel Stadium (LAA), 107

10. T-Mobile Park (SEA), 100

11. Coors Field (COL), 99

12. Minute Maid Park (HOU), 99

13. Comerica Park (DET), 96

14. Wridley Field (CHI), 94

15. Citizens Bank Park (PHI), 93

Step two: Identify which ballparks have games today.

Dodger Stadium, George M. Steinbrenner Field, Rogers Centre, Chase Field, T-Mobile Park, Coors Field, Wrigley Field, and Citizens Bank Park all have games today.

Step three: Identify which ballparks have the best weather for the likelihood of home runs today.

The “best weather” we’re looking for is high winds, hot temperatures, and no precipitation. We took a look at every field weather and these three ballparks have the best outlooks for today:

1. George M. Steinbrenner Field (ATH vs TB): wind speed of 9.8 MPH to left field, and it’ll be 86 degrees there today with a 14 to 25% chance of precipitation. Weather boost: very encouraging.

2. Coors Field (HOU vs COL): win speed of 10.7 MPH to left field, it’s a hot 93 degrees there at first pitch with a 0% chance of precipitation. Weather boost: encouraging.

3. Dodger Stadium (LAD vs CHW): win speed of 7.2 MPH out to right, 71 degrees at first pitch with a 0% chance of rain. Weather boost: minimal.

Step Four: Identify batter vs pitcher matchups with good head-to-head data, and that also plays into the ballpark data for those three ballparks.

George M. Steinbrenner Field - Focused on Righties

With the wind pushing out to the left and the short field at Steinbrenner Field, we’re focused on righties here. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has only given up 14 home runs this season, but 12 of those have come in his 11 home starts. And on the Athletics, there’s one righty batter who has seen Pepiot Well - Brent Rooker.

Rooker Dinger?

In 6 plate appearances against Pepiot, Brent Rooker has a .400 average. His 2 hits were singles, but his .214 ISO vs righties this season is encouraging with these ballpark stats.

Rooker has hit 55% of his home runs to left center field since 2023, another 21% to left field, and 22% to center field.

And Rooker has an HR in 18% of his games this season, and has hit 11 of his 17 home runs on the road this season.

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Coors Field - Focused on Righties, Too

That thin Colorado air, the wind at 10.7 MPH, and a hot 93 MPH day. Conditions are mint for righties; we just need one good connection and one good matchup.

Issac Paredes vs Austin Gomber

Isaac Parades faces Austin Gomber, whom he’s seen 8 times before, and has 3 singles and 1 home run against. Parades also has a .214 ISO. vs left-handed pitchers.

Parades hasn’t hit a home run to right or center field a single time since 2023, with all 66 of his home runs since then going to left-center and left field.

And lastly, Gomber has pitched 9.2 innings at home and given up 3 home runs, a .381 average to batters, and a 9.31 earned run average.

Dodger Stadium - Sean Burke and Brandon Eisert

Brandon Eisert, a lefty, will open this game for the White Sox before handing the ball off to Sean Burke, a righty, to pitch in bulk relief. There are two players to focus on:

Ohtani and Smith

Ohtani has a .346 ISO vs lefty pitchers, and although he hasn’t faced Eisert before, Eisert has a 1.09 HR per 9 innings, and Ohtani has a home run in 5 of his last 10 games.

When Burke enters the game, Will Smith is a possible target. He has a .231 ISO at home vs righties this season, has 4 home runs in his last 10 games, and has 30 of his 35 home runs vs righties to left field or center field since 2023.

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See you Thursday!