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Using Props to Find Potential Home Runs

In yesterday’s newsletter, we identified four potential home run hitters and went 2/4. Brent Rooker and Will Smith hit home runs, Isaac Paredes and Shohei Ohtani did not. We’ll use the same process we used yesterday to identify potential home run hitters, starting with our list of top ballparks.

The Home Run Process

Step one: Identify which ballparks have the most home runs.

1. Dodger Stadium (LA), 154 Home Runs

2. George M. Steinbrenner Field (TB), 138

3. Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL), 131

4. Rogers Centre (TOR), 128

5. Sutter Health Park (ATH), 116

6. Yankee Stadium (NY), 114

7. Chase Field (ARI), 111

8. Great American Ball Park (CIN), 108

9. Angel Stadium (LAA), 107

10. Coors Field (COL), 101

11. T-Mobile Park (SEA), 101

12. Minute Maid Park (HOU), 99

13. Wrigley Field (CHI), 97

14. Comerica Park (DET), 96

15. Citizens Bank Park (PHI), 96

Step two: Identify which ballparks have games today.

Dodger Stadium (LAD vs CWS, 10:10), Rogers Centre (TOR vs NYY, 7:07), Chase Field (ARI vs SF, 9:40), Coors Field (COL vs HOU, 3:10), T-Mobile Park (SEA vs KC, 10:10) & Wrigley Field (CHI vs CLE, 8:05) all have games today.

Step three: Identify which of these ballparks has the best weather for home runs.

Yesterday’s games had some outstanding wind data, but today’s do not. Of the six games we have to pick from, none of them have particularly good wind data, but there are some hot days with minimal wind gusts.

• At Coors Field in Colorado, the wind is slightly blowing in, but it’s a hot day in Denver (5.4-7.2 MPH blowing toward the third base line, 87-91 degrees).

• In Arizona, the wind speed isn’t much of a factor, but it’s really hot, and the wind is pushing out (6.3 mph-4.5 mph, right field, 100-98 degrees).

• At Dodgers Stadium, the wind is at least pushing out and not coming in - it’ll be strongest earlier in the game (7.2-5.4 mph blowing out to right and right center field, 72 to 66 degrees).

Step Four: Identify matchups in those three games that play into the weather data.

Coors Field - Kyle Freeland At Home

With the wind not really a factor, we can’t really focus on lefties vs righties in terms of ball flight. Instead, with the hot weather in Denver, we’ll focus on the starting pitchers. Kyle Freeland has a 7.11 ERA at home, and he has a HR per 9 of 1.19 vs righties at home, and a HR/9 of 1.00 vs lefties at home.

Cam Smith vs Kyle Freeland

Cam Smith is a bit of a longshot, but he has the highest ISO versus left-handed pitchers on the Astros with at least 50 plate appearances (.333). 4 of his 7 home runs have come off of lefties.

He has a home run every 13.25 plate appearances versus lefties this season, and a HR every 74.33 plate appearances versus righties. Smith also carries an 11.8 barrel % vs offspeed pitches, his highest, and Freeland has a 15.4% barrel percentage vs his offspeed pitches, his highest.

It's a long shot, but he likes facing lefties, and he has 3+ HRR in 5 of his last 6 games, batting .450 with a 1.250 OPS in those 6 games.

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Chase Field - Brandon Pfaadt vs Righties

Similar to Coors Field, the wind is not a major factor at Chase Field, so we’ll focus on the heat and the starting pitchers. Brandon Pfaadt has given up a home run in 3 of his last 4 games, has a 6.46 ERA in June, and a 1.77 HR per 9 against right-handed hitters.

Rafael Devers

Devers has the highest ISO versus righties on the Giants (.234), plus the pitching data is positive for Devers. Although Pfaadt is a predominant fastball pitcher, throwing his fastball 53% of the time, and Devers gets thrown fastballs 62% of the time, he still throws his offspeed enough for it to possibly be a factor today, and Devers crushes offspeed pitches.

Dodger Stadium - Early Game Wind

Although it's not overly powerful, the wind will be strongest earlier in the game to the right and center right field. With that, we’ll focus on left-handed hitters.

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is an elite, elite fastball pitcher. And White Sox starter Aaron Civale throws his fastball a whopping 70.6% of the time.

This is also a stat that has to be brought to the forefront - Civale has a 2.89 HR/9 on the road versus lefties this season, a stunning jump from his 0.00 HR/9 at home versus lefties. Ohtani, on the other hand, has an HR in 35% of his home games vs a righty starter this season.

Max Muncy has strong data, too, but he was injured yesterday, and his status is not known.

MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchup

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups — July 3rd 🔥

⚾️ Riley Greene: 19 HRR in his last 3 vs a RHP, 💥
⚾️ Aaron Judge: 12 HRR in this series alone 😳 — had 8 last night 🧨
⚾️ Bo Bichette: Hasn’t played yet in the series (knee), but good numbers vs Schmidt — .333 avg in 14 PA 👀
⚾️ Willy Adames: 2+ HRR in 2 of his L3. 6 PA vs Pfaadt = .600 avg 🔥

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See you Tuesday!