July 4th MLB Trends

Author

Michael Mohorovich
July 04, 2024

Happy Birthday, America!

It’s July 4th, so every MLB team is in action with 15 games from 11 am to 9 pm. We have one MLB trend for each game after 1 pm below, including two from our partner @PropsProphet. There are 13 (!) trends below. Trends for Friday and Saturday’s Euro 2024 semi-finals will come to you in a special edition newsletter tomorrow. But first…

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15 games, 30 teams, and one trend for each game that starts after 1 pm! A big newsletter, let’s get into it.

1:05 pm - Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Total Bases

In his last 30 games, whenever Aaron Judge has zero total bases, he follows it up with 4 bases or more. It’s an absurd statement, and it’s true.

He gets Frankie Montas today, who he has a .286 average against in 7 plate appearances.

1:07 pm - Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases

Air Yordan loves playing Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt.

Yordan Alvarez career stats against Chris Bassitt

He’s also been on fire lately, with 32 total bases in his last 8 games (!!!!)

1:10 pm - Carlos Correa Over 1.5 H+R+R

Detroit Tigers pitcher Kenta Maeda had a 5.76 ERA and has been eaten up by both sides of the plate this season, and Carlos Correa is in a good spot to take advantage.

Carlos Correa Splits, Kenta Maeda Splits

Carlos Correa has also been over this line in 4 of his last 5 games, totaling 21 combined hits, runs, and RBIs.

1:10 pm - Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases

Kwan has gone cold, he has just 8 total bases in his last 9 games. But if there’s ever a time for him to snap out of it, it’s today. He has mashed lefties to the tune of a .403 average and White Sox starter Jared Shuster has been torched by lefties, giving up a .306 average and 5XBH's while facing just 55 batters.

1:10 pm - Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Rafael Devers is HOT!

He has 35 hits, runs, and RBIs total in his last 9 games, and gets a wonderful matchup against Marlins’ starter Kyle Tyler. It’s a small sample size, but Tyler has given up a .294 average to lefties, a big jump from the .150 average against righties.

2:20 pm - Jameson Taillon Over 5.5 Hits Allowed

This is @ThePropsProphet first play of the day! Here’s his write-up:

Taillon is over this line in 4 of his last 5 home games, averaging 6.2 hits allowed. He now faces the Phillies, who match up perfectly against him. They are 4th in league in on base percentage and 5th in the league in runs created when facing right handed pitchers. Even without the support of three strong bats in Harper, Realmuto, and Shwarber, they are staying consistent in hits off starting pitchers. They gave 9 hits to Chirinos, 5 to Wesneski, and 6 to Imanaga yesterday. Along with this, 8/9 Phillies batters have faces Taillon in the past. 7/8 of those with at least one plate appearance against him have batting averages above .200. 5/8 of them have averages above .333. I dont see the Phillies slowing down today for any reason, and along with their history against Taillon this is the perfect spot today for him to go over.

Taillon’s history against the Phillies, 5 Phillied have a .300 average or better again him

2:35 pm - Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Luis Arraez has 2 more more hits, runs, and RBIs in 58% of his games this season, and 67% of his road games. And although it’s a very small sample size, he has a .667 batting average against Rangers starter Maz Scherzer. Arraez is also crushing righties to the tune of a .329 average.

4:07 pm - Zach Neto Over 0.5 Hits

Zach Neto has mashed lefties this season. His average versus righties? .214. His average versus lefties? .413.

He gets Athletics lefty JP Sears, who’s had much more success against left-handed hitters this year than he has against righties.

4:10 pm - Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 K’s

One look at Burnes chart and you’ll be rolling your eyes at this trend, but he’s playing the Mariners!

See that second game with 11 K’s? That was against Seattle. They’re historically bad against righties in terms of strikeouts. If there’s ever a spot for Burnes to go over this line, it’s today.

7:20 pm - Logan Webb Over 5.5 K’s

This is @ThePropsProphet second play of the day! Here’s his write-up:

Webb has been consistently hitting this line, going over in 7 of his last 10 games and averaging 6.1 strikeouts. The 3 games he went under he barely missed with 5 strikeouts each. He now faces the Braves at home, who have been struggling against right handed pitchers recently. They have the 6th highest K% in the league at 24%. Volume will be an important factor today. Webb sees an increase from 19 pitching outs in away games to 21 pitching outs at home this season, facing an extra 3 batters at home. The extra two outs and three batters faced create a huge edge in this line.

8:10 pm - Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases

Three things about this trend:

  • Bobby Witt Jr has a small, but productive sample size against Rays starter Zach Eflin.

Bobby Witt Jr. has a single, a triple, and 2 RBIs versus Eflin.

  • Witt Jr. has gone over this line in 62% of his home games, including 3 straight and 7 of his last 10.

  • Eflin has been much more effective to lefties than he has to righties this season.

Righties are hitting Eflin to the tune of a .277 average, but lefties are hitting just .239

8:10 pm - Tobias Meyers Under 5.5 Hits Allowed

Meyers has gone under this line in 9 of his 12 starts this season, and today he gets a matchup against one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball. They’re 29th in the league in wRC+ and 24th in the league in OBP.

9:10 pm - Will Smith Over 0.5 Singles

This is strictly a matchup play. Will Smith has a sample size of 17 plate appearances against Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen, and in his career, he’s hit .375 with 4 singles, a double, and a triple.

Will Smith Career Versus Zac Gallen

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Tuesday Recap

4-2 on Tuesday, we improved to 96/189 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52%

MLB Recap

Dallas Keuchel Over 3.5 Earned Runs ❌ Keuchel pitched a pretty good game, only giving up 2 earned runs.

Kyle Gibson Under 5.5 Hits Allowed ✅ It was a sweat, but Gibosn held the Pirates to 5 hits.

Jonathan India Over 0.5 Total Bases ❌ India goes hitless.

Masyn Winn Over 0.5 Singles ✅ Winn had two hits, one double and one single.

Euro Recap

Christoph Baumgartner Over 0.5 Shots on Goal ✅ He had 5 shots, one on target, and we’re green.

WNBA Recap

Napheesa Collier Under 29.5 Points+Rebounds ✅ Collier had 15 points and 10 boards to turn this trend green.